Consumers Think 2025 Housing Market Will Be More Favorable With Lower Rates Fannie Mae Home Purchase Index Is More Specific To Housing Than Consumer Confidence Sentiment Tends To Focus On Economic Conditions. Confidence Tends To Focus on Labor I've always been drawn to hard data as a basis for analysis of a local housing market. Based on feedback from market participants and what I've been...
Consumer Optimism About The Stock Market Is The Highest Ever Recorded Participants In The Stock Market Tend To Be More Affluent Overall Mortgage Rates Not Expected To Fall Sharply So Equity Withdrawals Are Favorable To Luxury Home Buyers I've been appraising Manhattan properties since 1986, and it is natural for its residents to see the financial markets as a proxy for the local economy. After...
Most Housing Analysts Think Home Prices Are Going Up In 2025 Big Banks And Wall Street Are The Most Bullish On Housing Prices Inventory Continues To Be A More Powerful Price Influencer Than Mortgage Rates Lance Lambert of ResiClub one of the best residential housing market analysts around dug in and found a bunch of housing price forecasts for 2025. The bottom line is that all major economic...
• The S&P 500 Outperforms Average Trading Days On Friday The 13th
• Wages Are Rising More Than Pre-pandemic And Mortgage Rates Are Falling
• FOMC Expectations Remain At Three Rate Cuts In 2024
• Current GSE Forecasts Are Dated. Based On Old Expectations Of A 25-Basis Point Cut
• Anecdotal Data Bridges The Lag In Actual Data Usually Relied On For Trends
• High End Housing Continues To Outperform The Balance Of The Market
• Confidence Surveys Track The “Now” While Sentiment Surveys Track The “Future”
• Survey Reliability Is One Step Below Actual Data And Subject To Bias
• Confidence, Sentiment Surveys Don’t Consider Recent Change In Rate Outlook
Home prices rise faster than inflation after removing housing from the calculation
Greedflation has proven true as retailers try to woo back consumers with lower prices
New homes as share of total inventory at record levels from limited existing supply
Despite the bad press EV and Hybrid cars have had recently with cold weather charging issues, the spike in interest rates that began in early 2022 didn't seem to have the severe detrimental impact on car sales as it did on housing sales. With both, prices remained high despite the rates. Car sales took off and home sales slowed. Why? With the chip shortage of 20222023, new car sale listing...
More than half of consumers identify as middle class and that fits nicely within the American Dream narrative. Housing used to fit nicely into that narrative too, before the 2022 Fed pivot created higher mortgage rates and the lack of inventory made bidding wars a fact of life. But for the consumer, some of the financial pain has been eased through higher wages as they were shifted from decades...
Wages have been deflationary since the 60s but have been inflationary since the pandemic. I prefer the latter for society (largely working and middle class) as well as the health of the overall housing market once mortgage rates normalize and we stop seeing a massive distortion in economic metrics. For example, I thought this was supposed to be the spring housing market where contract volume...
The post Miami-Dade County New Signed Contracts v. New Listings – By Property Type first appeared on Miller Samuel Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants. [...]
This week I joined Jim Duncan and his colleagues at Nest Realty in Virginia. I've known Jim for years through our mutual online writings. His Jim's Note has always been [...]
