The China Trade Deal Will Likely Assure Mortgage Rates Remain Elevated Consumers Acclimating To Elevated Mortgage Rates, But Uncertainty Is Worse The Tariff Tantrum Took The Momentum Out Of The Spring Housing Market When asked about the Tariff Tantrums that began a month ago, I've been describing them as "our uncertainty has uncertainty." Companies can't make plans. Corporate executives...
Consumer or Administration Still Has No Clear Understanding Of The Tariff Plan/Strategy Canadian And Chinese Exports To The US Are Plummeting, Shelves Expected To Be Lighter Within The Month Consumers Still Perceive Real Estate As Best LongTerm Investments A few nights ago, we went to bed and heard the pitterpatter of footsteps above us in the attic. As I write this post, there is a protest...
NAR’s Housing Affordability Index Is A Trade Group Stunt Rising Income Playing A Large Role In Softening Damage Of High Mortgage Rates Housing Affordability Is At Crisis Levels But Millions Are Still Buying Homes Nearly 12 years ago, my friend Barry Ritholtz wrote a takedown on NAR’s Housing Affordability Index. His conclusion? It’s worthless and still worthless, citing only one month back during...
The Administration’s Call For The Fed To Cut Rates With Raise Inflation The Administration Is Looking To Walk Back Tariffs To Save Face Not Much Chance Of Big Mortgage Rate Drops This Year I haven't talked about mortgage rates much in the past month, as the Tariff Tantrums have taken up all my bandwidth. Let's set the stage for the outlook of mortgage rates: Tariffs are now 10x the levels of a...
BHHS CEO Who Denied Compass Was Acquiring His Firm Last Month, Just Stepped Down Companies Are Beginning To Use Two Scenarios When Forecasting The 2025 Economy Lack Of Clarity Continues To Define The New Global Trade War Era The headlines screamed Gino Blefari had stepped down as HomeServices CEO, and everybody in the industry gave a knowing nod. A month ago, after some terrific reporting by the...
The Tariff Tantrum Is Pushing Mortgage Rates Higher Higher Mortgage Rates Push Rental Prices Higher Higher Economic Risk Restrains The Upswing In Housing Demand Over the last couple of days, even the uncertainty about the economy has uncertainty. It’s the incredible volatility that is causing the damage; not how much the financial markets may rise or fall in a day. It’s become evident that there...
We Still Don’t Know What We Don't Know Since The Tariffs Are Not An Economic Strategy Tariffs Are Inflationary Because They Are A Tax On The American Consumer This Ship Has Sailed: Shift To Manufacturing As US Economic Driver Every day, I endeavor to write about the nuances of the housing market. However, with the tariff tantrums coming out of Washington, DC, on an hourly basis, it is the only...
When Consumers Are Confused About The Economy, They Pause The Tariff Damage To Economy May Not Bring Down Rates If Inflation Surges The Odds Of A Recession Are Now At 60%, Up From 40% A Few Days Ago Wow. What a bizarre news cycle. This note will probably sound more like a rant than a measured discussion because that would be impossible for me. There is no apparent cohesive strategy for the...
Goldman Sachs Now Sees Three Fed Cuts Later This Year Recession Odds Are Rising Quite A Bit In Back Half Of Year Mortgage Rates Could Slide More As Economy Receives Blunt Force Tariff Trauma As I’ve mentioned here before, tariffs are inflationary, and that’s not a political statement. However, you can see in the chart below that the use of tariffs is significantly higher in Trump II than in Trump...
Wall Street Profits And Average Bonus Per Employee Comp Reached New Highs NYC Remains A Key Driver Of Higher End Housing Demand Wall Street Comp In NYC Is Almost 5X The Private Sector The New York State Comptroller released their annual report on Wall Street profits and average bonus compensation for 2024. It showed the sector made a lot of money [gift link], the most on record in terms of...
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![[Podcast] Episode 4: What It Means With Jonathan Miller](https://millersamuel.com/files/2025/04/WhatItMeans.jpeg)
Episode 4 is out! I touch on the 2 scandals coming out of the Appraisal Institute and more on tariffs. I spoke at a new development real estate event in [...]
