CategoryMortgages/Credit/Cash

Tariff Insanity Won’t Bring The End Of The Housing Economy As We Know It, And I Feel Fine.

We Still Don’t Know What We Don't Know Since The Tariffs Are Not An Economic Strategy Tariffs Are Inflationary Because They Are A Tax On The American Consumer This Ship Has Sailed: Shift To Manufacturing As US Economic Driver Every day, I endeavor to write about the nuances of the housing market. However, with the tariff tantrums coming out of Washington, DC, on an hourly basis, it is the only...

Tariffs Tantrums Are Getting More Pushback Than Donut Holes

Goldman Sachs Now Sees Three Fed Cuts Later This Year Recession Odds Are Rising Quite A Bit In Back Half Of Year Mortgage Rates Could Slide More As Economy Receives Blunt Force Tariff Trauma As I’ve mentioned here before, tariffs are inflationary, and that’s not a political statement. However, you can see in the chart below that the use of tariffs is significantly higher in Trump II than in Trump...

But Whatever: Fannie Mae Blacklists And Arrogance

The GSEs May Be Sold To Help Pay For A Tax Cut For The Wealthy Housing Is Local But Mortgage Rates Are National Privatizing The GSEs Supposedly Determine Whether Doing So Will Raise Rates One of the housing related promises coming out of Washington D.C. has been to privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (governmentsponsored entities/GSEs), often described by my peers as a couple of big dumb banks...

Will Redfin Finally Become A Rocketship?

Redfin Snapped Up By Rocket Mortgage Becoming A Notable Threat To Zillow Redfin, The Discount Real Estate Broker, Never Figured Out How To Be Profitable Rocket Has Always Seemed To Defy Interest Rate Gravity And Redfin Has Great Tech Wow. Today is the birthday of the World Wide Web. No one saw the acquisition of Redfin by Rocket Mortgage coming, and perhaps that's what makes this transaction so...

Housing A Recession Doesn’t Rate

Recession Talk Has Crept In To The Economic Conversation Chaotic Economic Policy Pauses The Consumer Recession Means Real Job Loss But Possibly Lower Rates Well, it’s been a chaotic 2025 so far with the uncertainty ratcheted up to sky and tariff policy’s blunt force trauma thrown against friends and neighbors. If you’ll recall, implementation of tariffs in 2018 specifically punished soybean...

It’s A Perfect Storm When PITI Becomes PITIHOA

It's Not Just Principal/Interest. All Homeownership Costs Are Rising. Mortgage Rates Are Not Expect To Fall Much, If Any, In 2025. With Migration Surging Into FloodProne Locations, Obtaining Insurance Becomes Key Issue. I hope all my Housing Note readers are enjoying the holidays with family and friends. I'm visiting my wife's family in the empty Macadam parking lots of strip malls in the din of...

Fannie And Freddie’s Regulator Loves Moral Hazard Like I Love Cranberry Sauce

Fannie & Freddie Are Essential For The Homebuying Process By Expanding Capital For Mortgage Lending The GSEs Did Not Learn Their Lessons From The Moral Hazard Of The Financial Crisis The GSEs Maintain A Cultural Arrogance That Will Get Them Into Trouble If Freed From Conservatorship First of all, Happy Thanksgiving to all my readers! Early in my career, I learned that certain costs never go...

The One Banana, Two Banana, Three Banana Housing Market Outlook

Art Installation "Comedian" Just Resold For $6.2M As Possible Luxury Housing Market Proxy Lower Mortgage Rate Expectations Scaled Back From Higher Inflation Risk New And Existing Home Sales And Prices Expected To Rise Modestly In 2025 As either a sign of insanity, a strong economy, or a crypto disconnect, (gift link) a banana with duct tape art installation "Comedian" just resold for $6.2 million...

Homeownership Is Not A Given And It Can Be Taken

• US Homeownership Rate Is 65.6%, Similar To The Monthly Average Since 1965
• The 5% Surge In US Homeownership During The Housing Bubble Caused A Foreclosure Surge
• New York State Has The Lowest Homeownership Rate While NYC Is Only 30%

Rate Expectations Go Big To Go Home

• The Fed Gives Housing Sales A Lift With Unexpected 50-Basis Point Cut
• The Fed’s First Rate Cut In Four Years Expected To Pull Mortgage Rates Lower
• Its A New Era With Six More Rate Cuts In The Forecast Through 2025