CategoryMortgages/Credit/Cash

It’s A Perfect Storm When PITI Becomes PITIHOA

It's Not Just Principal/Interest. All Homeownership Costs Are Rising. Mortgage Rates Are Not Expect To Fall Much, If Any, In 2025. With Migration Surging Into FloodProne Locations, Obtaining Insurance Becomes Key Issue. I hope all my Housing Note readers are enjoying the holidays with family and friends. I'm visiting my wife's family in the empty Macadam parking lots of strip malls in the din of...

Fannie And Freddie’s Regulator Loves Moral Hazard Like I Love Cranberry Sauce

Fannie & Freddie Are Essential For The Homebuying Process By Expanding Capital For Mortgage Lending The GSEs Did Not Learn Their Lessons From The Moral Hazard Of The Financial Crisis The GSEs Maintain A Cultural Arrogance That Will Get Them Into Trouble If Freed From Conservatorship First of all, Happy Thanksgiving to all my readers! Early in my career, I learned that certain costs never go...

The One Banana, Two Banana, Three Banana Housing Market Outlook

Art Installation "Comedian" Just Resold For $6.2M As Possible Luxury Housing Market Proxy Lower Mortgage Rate Expectations Scaled Back From Higher Inflation Risk New And Existing Home Sales And Prices Expected To Rise Modestly In 2025 As either a sign of insanity, a strong economy, or a crypto disconnect, (gift link) a banana with duct tape art installation "Comedian" just resold for $6.2 million...

Homeownership Is Not A Given And It Can Be Taken

• US Homeownership Rate Is 65.6%, Similar To The Monthly Average Since 1965
• The 5% Surge In US Homeownership During The Housing Bubble Caused A Foreclosure Surge
• New York State Has The Lowest Homeownership Rate While NYC Is Only 30%

Rate Expectations Go Big To Go Home

• The Fed Gives Housing Sales A Lift With Unexpected 50-Basis Point Cut
• The Fed’s First Rate Cut In Four Years Expected To Pull Mortgage Rates Lower
• Its A New Era With Six More Rate Cuts In The Forecast Through 2025

Cash Is King, Or Queens

• Manhattan cash buyers account for two-thirds of all home sales, higher than normal
• U.S. cash buyers in metro areas account for four in ten sales, more than typical
• The share of cash buyers fluctuates with mortgage rates

Outsized Rate Reactions Expected: The First Cut Is The Deepest

The Fed reset expectations with a pivot from a threethenone rate cut projection Even a small (25%) rate cut will fuel a surge in sales after two years of waiting A slight rate decline will bring in more inventory but a lot more demand Apologies for a Rod Stewart song reference but he delivers my favorite version of it. Time flies and it is hard to believe that more than two years have passed...

What’s In A Name? OZK Means Big Construction Loans And You’ve Probably Never Heard Of Them.

OZK is the biggest U.S. construction lender by far OZK changed its name in 2018 from Bank of the Ozarks OZK dominated construction loans in New York City, now South Florida Bank of the Ozarks changed its name to Bank OZK in 2018 to reflect its broader lending coverage. Coming out of the financial crisis, they acquired a bunch of failed banks. My peers wondered what a bank in Arkansas was doing...