Subscribe to ‘Housing Notes’ to receive Jonathan Miller’s insights and research.

A Narrative of The Housing Economy

Fannie And Freddie’s Regulator Loves Moral Hazard Like I Love Cranberry Sauce

Fannie & Freddie Are Essential For The Homebuying Process By Expanding Capital For Mortgage Lending The GSEs Did Not Learn Their Lessons From The Moral Hazard Of The Financial Crisis The GSEs Maintain A Cultural Arrogance That Will Get Them Into Trouble If Freed From Conservatorship First of all, Happy Thanksgiving to all my readers! Early in my career, I learned that certain costs never go...

You Can Get Anything You Want At Alice’s Restaurant, Starbucks, and Whole Foods Because It Makes Housing Grow

Remembering The Alice Of Alice's Restaurant Fame Premium Grocery Brands Like Whole Foods, Drive Apartment Rents Higher The "Third Place" In A Neighborhood Such As Starbucks Fosters Entrepreneurialism The woman who owned the restaurant made famous by Brooklyn's Arlo Guthrie in his 1967 song Alice's Restaurant Massacree just [gift link>] passed away. It's a tradition that this fun song always gets...

The One Banana, Two Banana, Three Banana Housing Market Outlook

Art Installation "Comedian" Just Resold For $6.2M As Possible Luxury Housing Market Proxy Lower Mortgage Rate Expectations Scaled Back From Higher Inflation Risk New And Existing Home Sales And Prices Expected To Rise Modestly In 2025 As either a sign of insanity, a strong economy, or a crypto disconnect, (gift link) a banana with duct tape art installation "Comedian" just resold for $6.2 million...

Sun Belt State Housing Market Property Taxes Heat Up

Redfin Report Shows Higher Property Tax Gains In Sunbelt States Texas And Florida Lead The Pack For States With Largest Gains The Extension Of The SALT Tax Is A Big Economic Unknown Along with higher mortgage rates and rising insurance costs, property taxes are surging. The Sun Belt is experiencing growing pains reflected in higher costs that came from extra support services needed during the...

Bulletin: NAR Has Been A Leader In The Kind Of Entitlement That Comes When There Is No Competition

An Explosive NYTimes Story Exposed The SelfDealing Of NAR Senior Executives American Real Estate Association Is A New Competitor To NAR's Monopoly Appraisal Institute Is The Perfect Comp For NAR's Bad Behavior The National Association Of Realtors (NAR) got another dose of bad press yesterday when their selfdealing was examined in depth by the New York Times by Debra Kamin. She has been relentless...

$100 Million Home Sales Are The New $50 Million Home Sales

Super Luxury Homes Are More Commonly Exceeding The $100M Threshold These HighEnd Sales Are Long Term Asset Acquisitions As Buyers Bet On Future Higher Prices The $200 Million Sales Is Beginning To Be A Little More Common Americans have an unhealthy obsession with billionaires and real estate provides the perfect playground. Because I'm a dull and boring numbers guy, one of my hobbies since 2014...

Higher Mortgage Rates Are Driving New York City Rents Higher & Other Rate-Related Housing Distortions

After Weakening Rents Since The Summer, Prices Are Rising Again Rising Mortgage Rates Are Pushing WouldBe Buyers Back Into Rentals The Housing Market Distortion From Rising Rates Is Confusing Consumers It was a pleasant summer for New York City tenants while it lasted. After months of flat to declining rents, the Fed rate cut of 50 basis points in midSeptember did perhaps the opposite of its...

MLS Systems Need Some Clear Cooperation From Appraisers

NAR Is Toxic Entity Per DOJ Actions So The MLS Industry Is On Their Own Local Appraisers Need To Convey To Their MLS The Fields Needed To Fairly Value Purchase Prices Recorded Will Vary Significantly Based On How Commissions Are Handled Since the SitzerBurnett decision in 2023 and the NAR Settlement in 2024, the real estate brokerage world has been largely devoid of leadership. Multiple Listing...

Future HOA Membership Is A Growing Part Of Home Ownership Costs

More Than 80% Of New Home Sales Enter Homeowner Associations (HOA) The Implementation Of Tariffs Across The Economy Will Snuff Out Rate Cuts Financial Markets Tend To Be Wrong About Future Fed Cuts I started writing this post thinking about the greater cost of homeownership we've experienced through larger homeownership association (HOA) costs higher mortgage rates, rising property taxes, and...

Manhattan Contracts Soar As Miami Beach Contracts Decline Less

Manhattan Contracts Have Soared Year Over Year Every Month Since July Miami Contracts Decline As Listing Inventory Increases From Record Lows Miami Is More Dependent On Lower Mortgage Rates Than Manhattan Due To Lower Price Point We released our new signed contract reports for New York and Florida today. The comparison between Manhattan and Miami showed both similarities and differences worth...