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A Narrative of The Housing Economy

House Passes Massive Tax Bill Expanding Deduction On SALT Tax (Without Using A Semicolon)

The Big, Beautiful Tax Bill May Increase Mortgage Rates Original SALT Tax Held Down Property Values In The Northeast And California Proposed Higher SALT Tax Deduction Could Expand Sales [NEWS FLASH] Bloomberg just scooped that Douglas Elliman received a merger offer from real estate giant Anywhere [gift link]. Mergers in the real estate brokerage space are on the upswing. Ok, back to the SALT...

The Removal Of Appraisal Institute Executive Is Only Decorative

Appraisal Institute Removed Craig Steinley From Leadership After 3Hour Board Meeting The Organization Probably Won’t Survive Its Long Term Ethics Lapse The Vast Majority Of Membership Are Excellent Professionals Wronged By Leadership Silence [Apologies in advance, but there is so much content in this post that it might break the email by not loading all the graphics. To make it easier to read...

Get Used To High Mortgage Rates And High Rents

Expectations Of Continued Inflation Remains Firm With Consumers The Moody’s Downgrade Of US Credit Will Drive Interest Rates Higher Rising Interest Rates = Rising Rents Consumer perception of rising inflation has been growing since the beginning of the year. The tariff tantrums are inflicting far more damage to the US economy than any other country, and the full impact has yet to be...

12 Years: The Average Stay Of A NYC Homeowner

Rising Homeownership Costs Push Average Age Higher First Time Homebuyers Average 38 Years Old, Up From Late 20s In The 1980s The Average US Homebuyer Is 56 Years Old Throughout my real estate career, beginning in the mid80s, I remember having conversations with real estate agents about how long buyers live in their homes, referred to as "tenure." The answer I received generally averaged about 7...

Ending The Dog Days Of Tariffs Is Probably Better For Housing

The China Trade Deal Will Likely Assure Mortgage Rates Remain Elevated Consumers Acclimating To Elevated Mortgage Rates, But Uncertainty Is Worse The Tariff Tantrum Took The Momentum Out Of The Spring Housing Market When asked about the Tariff Tantrums that began a month ago, I've been describing them as "our uncertainty has uncertainty." Companies can't make plans. Corporate executives...

Appraisal Institute Continues To Cover Up Its ‘Wildly Inappropriate Behavior’

It's Been Four Days Since The NYT Piece, And The Appraisal Institute Sits On Its Hands The Appraisal Institute Is A Hotbed Of Sexual Harassment The Appraisal Institute Hid Fraudulent Test Scores The Appraisal Institute has been sitting on their hands since last Thursday, yet they are finally getting the attention they have long deserved. That bombshell New York Times article on the terrible...

#MeToo And Testing Fraud Applies To Appraisal Industry’s Largest Trade Group

Appraisal Institute Is The Perfect Comp For NAR’s Bad Behavior Former Appraisal Institute President Files Lawsuit Over Her Termination Missing Ethics In The Appraisal Industry’s Largest Trade Organization A while back, I wrote that the Appraisal Institute (AI) was the perfect comp for NAR's bad behavior. Today's blockbuster New York Times story Appraisal Trade Group Accused of Covering...

Rats In The Cellar: Tariffs Are About To Hit The US Consumer And No One Sees Them Yet

Consumer or Administration Still Has No Clear Understanding Of The Tariff Plan/Strategy  Canadian And Chinese Exports To The US Are Plummeting, Shelves Expected To Be Lighter Within The Month Consumers Still Perceive Real Estate As Best LongTerm Investments A few nights ago, we went to bed and heard the pitterpatter of footsteps above us in the attic. As I write this post, there is a protest...

Housing Affordability Is Down But Lets Lighten Up On All The Negativity

NAR’s Housing Affordability Index Is A Trade Group Stunt Rising Income Playing A Large Role In Softening Damage Of High Mortgage Rates Housing Affordability Is At Crisis Levels But Millions Are Still Buying Homes Nearly 12 years ago, my friend Barry Ritholtz wrote a takedown on NAR’s Housing Affordability Index. His conclusion? It’s worthless and still worthless, citing only one month back during...

WSJ’s Mansion Global Becomes A Ten

Mansion Global Turns Ten And Is Aligned Witwi A Housing Market Segment Favored Over Next Several Years Despite Ongoing Media Disruption, There Are Countless High Quality Real Estate Sources There Are Excellent Tools Available To Manage The Tsunami Of Housing Information Let's take a quick break from the heavy topics of the past couple of weeks since it's Friday! Here's a little story. More than a...