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A Narrative of The Housing Economy

That Sinking (And Leaning) Feeling In San Francisco Is Fading

After A $100 Million Retrofit, San Francisco’s Millennium Tower Stops Sinking Sales Turnover Appears To Have Normalized Prices Still Haven’t Recovered, But Outlook Appears Better Back in 2016, I remember learning about the Millennium Tower in San Francisco, which by then had sunk 16 inches and leaned 6 inches. Some opined that the values "postsinking" fell close to zero. Back...

FARE ACT: A Tenant Is More Likely To Be Bitten By A New Yorker Than A Shark

The FARE Act Will Not Result In Much, If Any, Financial Savings For Tenants The Broker Fees Will Disappear As They Shift In The Form Of Higher Rents The New Law Will Probably Clean Up The Rental Process Including "Key Fees" It’s the 50th Anniversary Of The Movie, Jaws (h/t to BR) so its fitting that the FARE Act (Fairness in Apartment Rental Expenses) goes into effect today. The law faced...

Luxury Housing Is Poised For Better Times Than The Rest

Wealth Gap Is Widening, And The USD Is Weakening, But No Expected Currency Play For Luxury Real Estate…Yet HighEnd Real Estate In Better Position To Weath Elevated Mortgage Rates Tariff Tantrums Will Keep Interest Rates Elevated In The Near Term A McKinsey report on the state of luxury showed how the value of luxury goods surged over the past five years. The fertile ground of an expanding wealth...

The Plural Of Anecdotal Is Not Data But With Massive Uncertainty It’s All We’ve Got

Hamptons Rental Leasing Is Probably Down Due To Robust Sales And Uncertainty Hamptons High End Rentals Are Where The Slow Down Is Concentrated Anecdotal, While Not Hard Data, Is Probably More Useful Than Ever There was a news headline about a 30% drop in the Hamptons rental market that went viral this week. The rental drop referred to transactions, not prices and seemed to suggest that...

Calculating Those Calculating Buyers And Sellers

A Redfin Study Says There Are More Sellers Than Buyers Redfin Is Crushing Zillow On Housing Market Conversation Nuggets The Study Doesn’t Consider Private Listings And Pentup Demand Redfin has a wizbang calculation to quantify how many buyers and sellers there are. I will break their effort down and point out a few problems with it. They tend to get more ink because they are more negative in...

Fannie & Freddie Want To Show Us Their Private Side

Fannie Mae’s Institutional Arrogance Earned Them A Leadership Purge The GSEs Are Up For Sale To Fund The Big Beautiful Bill The Time Of The Tariff Chaos Is Not The Time To Privatize The GSEs Fannie Mae, the dominant of the two governmentsponsored entities (GSEs), has long permitted a reckless culture that was maintained after going into receivership. They’ve seen some significant lapses of...

Housing Heat Versus Hotness

Months Of Supply Provides Similar Results To The Various Hotness Indices Regional Differences In Market Performances Remain Who Came Up With “Hotness” As A Housing Market Term? I’m a subscriber to ResiClub, an excellent resource on the US housing market. They recently analyzed the Zillow Market Heat Index (ZMHI), which I tend to check in with periodically. My reluctance to rely...

Looking Ahead Towards New Listings

National New Listing Inventory Has Returned To Normal Levels New Listings Are A Better Test For Current Conditions Than Total Inventory Palm Beach County Florida Continues To See Inadequate Supply New listing inventory is helpful in telling what is currently entering the market. Most reported inventory tends to be cumulative, which is the total of everything on the market, no matter how long it...

The Stanhope: Ground Leases Are Often Misunderstood

During The Housing Boom, Manhattan Developers Discovered Potential Of Leased Land As Development Sites Ground Lease Payments Can Push HOA Fees Significantly Higher Battery Park City MultiFamilies Are All Subject To Ground Leases Before the great financial crisis, I remember a major Manhattan developer, Extell (named initially “Intel” until the tech giant pushed back, so they renamed it), ran out...

House Passes Massive Tax Bill Expanding Deduction On SALT Tax (Without Using A Semicolon)

The Big, Beautiful Tax Bill May Increase Mortgage Rates Original SALT Tax Held Down Property Values In The Northeast And California Proposed Higher SALT Tax Deduction Could Expand Sales [NEWS FLASH] Bloomberg just scooped that Douglas Elliman received a merger offer from real estate giant Anywhere [gift link]. Mergers in the real estate brokerage space are on the upswing. Ok, back to the SALT...