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A Narrative of The Housing Economy

Bidding Wars And The Winner’s Curse

Time to read [6 minutes] Bidding Wars Are Auctions And Winners Behave Differently Than Losers Chronic Shortage Of Listing Inventory Is Easing But Bidding Wars Remain Prevalent Nearly One In Five US Sales Sells Above The Ask I have often told the story of our efforts to buy our present home three years ago in a Connecticut housing market devoid of listings. We beat 30 people and paid about 36%...

What Does The Stigma Of 666 Really Mean?

Time to read [5 minutes] I Doubt Having An Address Of 666 Will Damage Value The Epstein Mansion Value Was Not Hurt By Its Stigma A Plane Crashing Into A Condo Has Not Hurt Values In Building Yesterday, there was an article about a Sackler family heir's triplex on Park Avenue that might be listed. If you remember, the Sackler family was sued because they "owned, directed, and profited" from Purdue...

The Wealth Gap Is Driving More Luxury Housing

Time to read [5 minutes] The Wealth Gap Is Expanding Rapidly The Top 1% Own 50% Of The Financial Markets Luxury Real Estate Is Likely To Fair Better Than The Remainder A while back, I wrote about how the outlook for luxury housing seemed better than for the remainder of the housing market. One of the drivers of its outsized performance was the expanding wealth gap, which is a generational change...

Billionaires’ Row Was Never A Fight

Time to read [5 minutes] Resales At Billionaires’ Row Have Been Lackluster The Super Tall Luxury Market Never As Deep And Wide As Once Thought This Super Luxury Market Came To Life During The Perfect Credit Storm Vacation Week Note Hurricane Erin Both yesterday and today, my vacation town, Rehoboth Beach, turned cooler, dark, windy, and rainy, which forced my wife and me to do a lot of shopping...

Rental Trends Are Incremental, Yet New Policies May Be Incidental If Not Accidental

Time to read [5 minutes] While NYC Rental Prices Gains Have Been Significant, The Gains May Not Last The Significant Drop In Jobs Leading To A NearCertain Rate Cut The Key Will Be Whether Mortgage Rates See Meaningful Decline After Fed Move Vacation Week Note Source: Jonathan Miller We are at the beach! I grew up in Rehoboth Beach, DE, the "nation's summer capital," and try to make the...

Mortgage Amounts Relative To Housing Values Are Lowest Since Elvis

Time to read [5 minutes] Housing Narrative Has Shifted From Sellers' Strength To Buyers' Weakness Home Equity Has Surged Due To Rising Prices Distressed Real Estate Remains A Rounding Error There are tons of studies coming out now that we’re seeing more housing markets showing price declines. Incidentally, there is no national housing market. The narrative has shifted from talking about the...

Some Critical Thinking About The Great American Mortgage Corporation’s Implicit Guarantee

Time to read [9 minutes] The Administration Did An AboutFace And Plan To Have A GSE IPO In The Fall A Reduction Or Elimination Of Implicit Guarantee Will Raise Interest Rates Consolidation Of The GSEs Is Probably Good, But Not During Peak Uncertainty Let's do some critical thinking for fun but I need to warn you. Because this is a Washington, DCdirected post, it is chock full of acronyms. Fannie...

The LA Palisades Market Is On Fire (Not Literally)

Time to read [5 minutes] There Have Been A Lot Of Lot Sales In Palisades As Buyers Invest In The Future The Replacement Homes Will Likely Skew To Higher End The US Economy Is Becoming More Dependent On Its Wealthy Citizens The intensity of destruction by the Pacific Palisades fires was measured at $54 billion early this year. About 4,700 of the 6,600 structures destroyed in Palisades...

Don’t Fence Me In

Time to read [5 minutes] Generally, The Cost To Install Fences Isn’t Covered By The Added Value Fences Considered Part Of Landscaping Which Has Specific Contributory Value Ken Griffin Wants A Huge Fence For His $1 Billion+ Home Assemblage Years ago, I remember seeing a TV commercial by MercedesBenz that used the Gene Autry song “Don’t fence me in.” In fact, Mitsubishi, MiniCooper, Dodge, and...

Killing The Messenger Destroys Credibility [insert Oxford Comma] But Probably Lowers Mortgage Rates

Time to read [7 minutes] Tariff Damage To The Economy Is Evident From Significant Job Loss Job Loss Has Been Significant Since Implementation Of Tariff Policy The Odds Of Lower Mortgage Rates Soon Just Got Better For the past few months, we’ve been waiting for tariffs to impact the economy adversely, but have been scratching our heads as the hard data have shown pretty solid economic numbers...