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A Narrative of The Housing Economy

Rental Market Poised For New Highs Unless Mortgage Rates Drop

• Manhattan median rents were highest June on record despite the sharp drop in sqft
• Much smaller average size and stable median rent – tenants paid same but got less
• June home sales pulled back as many gave up on Fed cuts, pressuring rental prices

Let’s Dig Our Own Pool

• Pool construction has fallen 49% since its peak in 2021
• Demand surged because of the pandemic changes
• Falling home sales slowed demand

Cash Is King, Or Queens

• Manhattan cash buyers account for two-thirds of all home sales, higher than normal
• U.S. cash buyers in metro areas account for four in ten sales, more than typical
• The share of cash buyers fluctuates with mortgage rates

Move Sues Costar: When A Lawsuit Signals You’re A Threat

• Move, owner of Realtor.com, filed a trade secret lawsuit against CoStar
• CoStar making bold moves into the residential data space from commercial
• Data aggregator values have soared while the data providers have tanked

Building Stories: Dinosaurs & Their Monthly Maintenance

• Higher monthly maintenance for co-ops costs drives down achievable sales prices
• Office-to-residential conversions weren’t more commonplace until the 1980s
• Manhattan’s financial district continues to transition from 9-5 to 24 hours

The Conscious Uncoupling Of An MLS And Their Association Owners

• Two Realtor associations that own a Colorado MLS sold it to a private firm
• The unprecedented sale was to reduce legal exposure to the NAR settlement
• Business rules of an MLS conflict with Realtor associations (a.k.a. steering)

The Manhattan Media Pendulum Swings To A ‘Buyers Market’ On Square Footage Shrinkage

Average size of a Manhattan apartment fell YOY 5.1%, driving down median 1.5% Square footage is trending lower which is what is lowering prices The premature use of "buyer's market" suggests more supply improved affordability Our research on the second quarter Manhattan sales market was published yesterday and an ensuing classic New York Post headline caught my attention. No, not the salacious...

Buyers and Sellers Are Losing Their Resolve To Stay Put

• Consumers who can afford to move, becoming tired of “waiting for the right time”
• Buyers less resistant to move: More sales and rising purchases by mortgage
• Seller less resistant to move: More listing inventory with more accurate pricing

Election Year Home Sale Blues

• Home sales slow during federal election years, from added uncertainty in the market
• Party or candidate doesn’t matter – just another decision for markets to process
• Sales slow from the July 4 holiday to election day and then rebound immediately