Whether Your Tribe Was A Winner Or Loser On Election Night, Let’s Not Talk About It Today

November 6, 2024
  • The Election Impact On The Housing Market Probably Hasn’t Changed Much
  • Polling Data Reliability Is Terrible And Should Be Considered Worse Than Survey Data
  • Housing Note Readership Is Up!

I’m still processing last night’s election results and what it all means so forgive this light post. Talking about the housing market today seems almost trivial. I look forward to shifting gears a bit in my next Housing Notes where I go back to identifying significant housing issues and trends (the actual reason you’re here). The last couple of Housing Notes touched on the U.S. election and its impact on the housing market.

Readership is up at Housing Notes and I very much appreciate your continuing interest.

Source: ChatGPT

As I sit and think about the election results while drinking a Diet Mountain Dew Baja Blast (don’t ask), here are a few takeaways at grave risk of sounding preachy:

  • Overreliance On Polls – Polls have expanded significantly as a decision resource for consumers. We’ve been bombarded with so many polls that they become facts to users when each has varying degrees of bias and can be easily manipulated.
  • Polls Are Worse Than Surveys – In the pecking order of data quality, polls need to be pushed down several notches below survey data. They’re wildly unreliable.
  • Information Silos – Information and misinformation are far more powerful at influencing future decisions than we understand. The ability to curate who we follow on social media creates our silos which by definition is insulating.
  • Cable News Is Not News – This seems obvious but we get lulled into the tribe of our peers this way and it feels comfortable. Our media outlets are being dominated by a few entities and individuals that profit from their rage machines.
  • Sources Are Everything – I’m a huge fan of Edward Tufte and he always says that charts without a cited source are a lie. He is making the point that the understanding of where information comes from is just as important as the data itself.

Final Thoughts

Back to “normal” housing market stuff for my next post.

Did you miss Friday’s Housing Notes?

November 4, 2024

Following Up On Post-Election Interest Rate Direction

Image: ChatGPT

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