- Since 2018, submarkets that experienced falling prices accounted for more than half of all markets.
- The difference between the share of falling markets by price and rising markets widened significantly over the decade.
- Market optics of the high-end market smothered the impressions of the overall market.
Yesterday our Manhattan Decade report was featured online in the New York Times (free link) and will appear in the print edition this weekend. Although I wrote about our Manhattan Decade Report in late January, I wanted to take a more macro look inspired by the NYT take. I used an idea from a friend who suggested in 2009 that I plot the Case Shiller Index as a fish (I know, right?)! So here goes…
I used our YOY change in PPSF by neighborhood results from our Manhattan Decade series going back to 2005. The following table was taken from the most recent 2024 report.
Share Of Manhattan Submarkets That Rose And Fell YOY During Two Decades
verI counted the Manhattan submarkets that rose and fell YOY by PPSF and plotted them in a similar way that I approached the fishy Case Shiller plot chart in 2009 eaarlier on. In this rendition, however, an image of a fish did not emerge.
Focusing on the blue line (number of submarkets that saw rising YOY in PPSF), the majority of submarkets sed gains from 2010 to 2017 (above 50% of all markets). It is interesting that the trend quickly reversed at about the same time the “SALT” tax kicked in on January 1, 2018. Despite the plunge in mortgage rates during the pandemic era and the ensuing sales frenzy, the number of submarkets that saw YOY gains in PPSF has remained below 50% ever since. In other words, the number of submarkets that rose YOY in PPSF remained lower than the number of markets that were falling in PPSF since 2018. The pandemic surge in sales did not skew Manhattan prices higher as perceived by many.
YOY % Change In PPSF By Manhattan Neighborhood
In another exercise, the highest and the lowest YOY% change in PPSF was tracked over the past twenty years. Much like the wealth gap, the spread between the highest YOY% increase in PPSF and the lowest YOY% decrease in PPSF became decidedly wider about a decade ago. Higher increases in Manhattan prices – largely due to the introduction of much more expensive new development product – tends to get more attention and media coverage. I would guess that most of my Manhattan-centric readers felt that prices in general rose like a rocketship over the past decade. But following the black dotted line for YOY ppsf change, they didn’t.
Final Thoughts
Over the past decade, Manhattan overall price trends have largely been flat. Yet the spread between the highest price gains and the largest price declines have widened significantly during this period, consistent with the expanding wealth gap. Most of the media coverage of the market – reality shows as well as print and digital media – has been skewed towards the higher end. Those optics conveyed a robust Manhattan housing market price-wise for the last decade.
An Actual Final Thought: An artist was banned for life for building an apartment within the walls of a mall in Rhode Island. I’ll bet he was thinking a lot about the following chart.
Did you miss the previous Housing Notes?
Housing Notes Reads
- Tracking Manhattan Apartment Prices: It Comes Down to Condos vs. Co-ops [NY Times]
- Is Anyone Using Their Tiny Balconies? [Curbed]
- [Terra Logic] Understanding The Value of Manhattan Apartment Outdoor Space [Miller Samuel Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants]
- Manhattan Terraces Analysis [Miller Samuel]
- Bridgehampton Estate With Putting Green Sells for $16.65M [27 East]
Market Reports
- Elliman Report: Manhattan, Brooklyn & Queens Rentals 1-2025 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Florida New Signed Contracts 1-2025 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: New York New Signed Contracts 1-2025 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Manhattan Decade 2015-2024 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Orange County Sales 4Q 2024 [Miller Samuel]
