Housing This Question All Day Long: What Do You Pay For Rent?

September 8, 2023

Douglas Elliman is publishing our monthly NYC rental analysis next week. Admittedly, it’s pretty cool to see your Manhattan average rental price show up in a Morning Brew humor post.

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Did you miss last Friday’s Housing Notes?

September 1, 2023: Housing Reality Shows

But I digress…

New Sales Listings In Manhattan Have Declined Annually For Thirteen Months

I’ve been the author of an expanding series of U.S. market reports for Douglas Elliman since 1994. The latest series added has been the newly signed contracts, which track sales and listings that occurred only within the recently completed month. They are NOT cumulative sales or listings.

Elliman Report: August 2023 New York New Signed Contracts

More New York New Signed Contract Charts in our Chart Gallery

Highest & Best Newsletter: Cruel Summer for Florida Airbnb Owners

I continue to love this new Florida newsletter: Highest & Best from Oshrat Carmiel, formerly of Bloomberg News… Whether it’s Beehive, Substack, or something more homegrown, it’s got me thinking about the next steps for Housing Notes, so I will continue to follow along.

Miami Buyers Snag Condos–for 2027: Plus, home listings melt (again) in August; a new school by the crystal lagoon

This rendering has got to be the coolest-looking building ever…

Miami-Dade New Listings Have Fallen Year Year For Thirteen Months

New supply continues to crimp sales volume.

Elliman Report: August 2023 Florida New Signed Contappraisalts

More Florida New Signed Contract Charts in our Chart Gallery

LA Real Estate Nostalgia Versus Development Potential

I love history and can be naive about it on occasion. One of the points of magic when living in a home constructed in 1755 (ours) is the sense of history it retains. I have noticed the loss of homes made famous by previous generations of movie stars in California. Recently there has been an outcry of the pending demolition of Marilyn Monroe’s home in Brentwood, Los Angeles where she passed away just over 61 years ago. It’s probably too late to stop the demolition. It’s certainly the right of the current property owner to do so. But it’s still a shame.

UPDATE 3:44 PM ET
LA Councilwoman seeks to block demolition of Marilyn Monroe’s Brentwood home [NBC LOS ANGELES]

UPDATE2 8:01 PM ET

LA County New Listings Continued To Fall Faster Than New Signed Contracts

The supply crisis keeps sales levels constrained.

Elliman Report: August 2023 California New Signed Contracts

More California New Signed Contract Charts in our Chart Gallery

Breaking From The Broken World Of X (Formerly Known As Twitter)

In addition to all the toxicity and hypocrisy that encircles the new owner of Twitter, the app is literally breaking. Although I still derive value from it (dad jokes and housing market charts), and after spending years building a following, it’s been hard to let go despite the cesspool it has become. The engagement has collapsed.

Over the past two weeks, the feature that enables me to embed tweets in these Housing Notes newsletters no longer works – perhaps I need to pay to have a blue check mark to have that feature? Twitter has not informed me, but I no longer care now that Threads enables embeds on a web page.

Perhaps there’s a lesson here – when you crap on your clients repeatedly and don’t understand their values or principles, they go elsewhere as soon as convenient.

New Building Permits For Sunbelt States Show Massive Volatility

I was playing around with Census data and seeing this graphic before I ended up downloading the raw data. I was struck by how intense building permit volatility was in only a select group of states.

Wow.

Visual Capitalist: Define Being Wealthy By City

How Much Does it Take to Be Wealthy in America? This analysis uses data from Charles Schwab.

The Proliferation Of Cheap Furniture

This Washington Post article Why furniture got so bad is one of my favorite reads this week.

And now we’re just kind of stuck in a self-perpetuating cycle. Cheap manufacturing practices have conditioned consumers to expect that furniture should be inexpensive and fall apart in a few years. So not many shoppers are willing to pay for good quality even when it is available.

Getting Graphic

My favorite housing market/economic charts of the week made by others

Apollo’s Torsten Slok‘s amazingly clear charts.


Kastle card swipe data charts

Remember that Kastle charts are overstating occupancy* because their pre-pandemic occupancy benchmark was 100%, which is simply incorrect (*measures card swipe activity as a proxy for occupancy).

My favorite random charts of the week made by others

Post by @pbump
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Post by @ianbremmer
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Post by @ianbremmer
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Post by @politico
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Appraiserville

Referring Appraisers Is A Regular Thing In Appraisers’ Lives

My referral pecking order if I don’t know specific professionals in a given market, I go to:

(I) RAC – Comprised of the best residential appraisers in the U.S., RAC is a tiny organization like a family – I was president a few years ago.

Because it is a small group, I often have to go to The Appraisal Institute due to its larger U.S. footprint.

(II) Appraisal Institute – Back during my 2016 to 2022 efforts against Appraisal Institute corruption and eventually pushing CEO Jim Amorin to resign, I regularly referred lawyers, accountants, and financial consultants to the Appraisal Institute home page to “Find an Appraiser” after explaining the differences between and “MAI” or “SRA” if I didn’t know specific people in the market they needed services. It was never about the majority of the membership who were being ripped off by the FOJ cult in broad daylight. Thankfully, through the leadership of president Craig Steinley and appointment of Cindy Chance as CEO, the industry’s largest trade group is back on track to working for its membership.

(III) CRE – And if the referral request is not specifically an appraiser but more of a consultation matter, I go to the The Counselors of Real Estate, with which I hold a CRE designation. It’s a wonderful organization with a highly skilled membership.

OFT (One Final Thought)

I shared these SNL skits a long time ago, but something this week reminded me they were still relevant. Remember, it’s all about “volume.”

Brilliant Idea #1

If you need something rock solid in your life (particularly on Friday afternoons at 2 p.m.) and someone forwarded this to you, , or you think you already subscribed, sign up here for these weekly Housing Notes. And be sure to share with a friend or colleague if you enjoy them because:

– They’ll ask you about your rent;
– You’ll rent;
– And I’ll be making change at volume.

Brilliant Idea #2

You’re clearly full of insights and ideas as a reader of these Housing Notes. Please share them with me early and often. I appreciate every email I receive, as it helps me craft the following week’s Housing Note.

See you next week!

Jonathan J. Miller, CRE, Member of RAC
President/CEO
Miller Samuel Inc.
Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants
Matrix Blog
@jonathanmiller

Reads, Listens and Visuals I Enjoyed

My New Content, Research and Mentions

Recently Published Elliman Market Reports

Appraisal Related Reads

Extra Curricular Reads