Did you miss last Friday’s Housing Notes?
September 1, 2023: Housing Reality Shows
But I digress…
New Sales Listings In Manhattan Have Declined Annually For Thirteen Months
I’ve been the author of an expanding series of U.S. market reports for Douglas Elliman since 1994. The latest series added has been the newly signed contracts, which track sales and listings that occurred only within the recently completed month. They are NOT cumulative sales or listings.
Elliman Report: August 2023 New York New Signed Contracts
More New York New Signed Contract Charts in our Chart Gallery
Highest & Best Newsletter: Cruel Summer for Florida Airbnb Owners
I continue to love this new Florida newsletter: Highest & Best from Oshrat Carmiel, formerly of Bloomberg News… Whether it’s Beehive, Substack, or something more homegrown, it’s got me thinking about the next steps for Housing Notes, so I will continue to follow along.
Miami Buyers Snag Condos–for 2027: Plus, home listings melt (again) in August; a new school by the crystal lagoon
This rendering has got to be the coolest-looking building ever…
Miami-Dade New Listings Have Fallen Year Year For Thirteen Months
New supply continues to crimp sales volume.
Elliman Report: August 2023 Florida New Signed Contappraisalts
More Florida New Signed Contract Charts in our Chart Gallery
LA Real Estate Nostalgia Versus Development Potential
I love history and can be naive about it on occasion. One of the points of magic when living in a home constructed in 1755 (ours) is the sense of history it retains. I have noticed the loss of homes made famous by previous generations of movie stars in California. Recently there has been an outcry of the pending demolition of Marilyn Monroe’s home in Brentwood, Los Angeles where she passed away just over 61 years ago. It’s probably too late to stop the demolition. It’s certainly the right of the current property owner to do so. But it’s still a shame.
UPDATE 3:44 PM ET
LA Councilwoman seeks to block demolition of Marilyn Monroe’s Brentwood home [NBC LOS ANGELES]
UPDATE2 8:01 PM ET
LA County New Listings Continued To Fall Faster Than New Signed Contracts
The supply crisis keeps sales levels constrained.
Elliman Report: August 2023 California New Signed Contracts
More California New Signed Contract Charts in our Chart Gallery
Breaking From The Broken World Of X (Formerly Known As Twitter)
In addition to all the toxicity and hypocrisy that encircles the new owner of Twitter, the app is literally breaking. Although I still derive value from it (dad jokes and housing market charts), and after spending years building a following, it’s been hard to let go despite the cesspool it has become. The engagement has collapsed.
Over the past two weeks, the feature that enables me to embed tweets in these Housing Notes newsletters no longer works – perhaps I need to pay to have a blue check mark to have that feature? Twitter has not informed me, but I no longer care now that Threads enables embeds on a web page.
Perhaps there’s a lesson here – when you crap on your clients repeatedly and don’t understand their values or principles, they go elsewhere as soon as convenient.
New Building Permits For Sunbelt States Show Massive Volatility
I was playing around with Census data and seeing this graphic before I ended up downloading the raw data. I was struck by how intense building permit volatility was in only a select group of states.
Visual Capitalist: Define Being Wealthy By City
How Much Does it Take to Be Wealthy in America? This analysis uses data from Charles Schwab.
The Proliferation Of Cheap Furniture
This Washington Post article Why furniture got so bad is one of my favorite reads this week.
And now we’re just kind of stuck in a self-perpetuating cycle. Cheap manufacturing practices have conditioned consumers to expect that furniture should be inexpensive and fall apart in a few years. So not many shoppers are willing to pay for good quality even when it is available.
My favorite housing market/economic charts of the week made by others
Apollo’s Torsten Slok‘s amazingly clear charts.
Kastle card swipe data charts
Remember that Kastle charts are overstating occupancy* because their pre-pandemic occupancy benchmark was 100%, which is simply incorrect (*measures card swipe activity as a proxy for occupancy).
My favorite random charts of the week made by others
Post by @pbumpView on Threads
Post by @ianbremmerView on Threads
Post by @ianbremmerView on Threads
Post by @politicoView on Threads
Referring Appraisers Is A Regular Thing In Appraisers’ Lives
My referral pecking order if I don’t know specific professionals in a given market, I go to:
(I) RAC – Comprised of the best residential appraisers in the U.S., RAC is a tiny organization like a family – I was president a few years ago.
Because it is a small group, I often have to go to The Appraisal Institute due to its larger U.S. footprint.
(II) Appraisal Institute – Back during my 2016 to 2022 efforts against Appraisal Institute corruption and eventually pushing CEO Jim Amorin to resign, I regularly referred lawyers, accountants, and financial consultants to the Appraisal Institute home page to “Find an Appraiser” after explaining the differences between and “MAI” or “SRA” if I didn’t know specific people in the market they needed services. It was never about the majority of the membership who were being ripped off by the FOJ cult in broad daylight. Thankfully, through the leadership of president Craig Steinley and appointment of Cindy Chance as CEO, the industry’s largest trade group is back on track to working for its membership.
(III) CRE – And if the referral request is not specifically an appraiser but more of a consultation matter, I go to the The Counselors of Real Estate, with which I hold a CRE designation. It’s a wonderful organization with a highly skilled membership.
OFT (One Final Thought)
I shared these SNL skits a long time ago, but something this week reminded me they were still relevant. Remember, it’s all about “volume.”
Brilliant Idea #1
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– And I’ll be making change at volume.
Brilliant Idea #2
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See you next week!
Reads, Listens and Visuals I Enjoyed
- Miami Buyers Snag Condos–for 2027 [Highest & Best]
- Why you should consider a building's climate disaster risk when buying in NYC [Brick Underground]
- FOUND: two scoops [FOUND]
- Buying Is Just the Beginning. What Does It Really Cost to Own a Home? [NY Times]
- How Much Does it Take to Be Wealthy in America? [Visual Capitalist]
- City Observatory – Gentrification and Housing Supply [City Observatory]
- Outrage and calls to preserve Marilyn Monroe’s only house increase after facing demolition [NY Post]
- The only home Marilyn Monroe ever owned, and where she died, faces demolition [NY Post]
- How Private Is This Community Off the Coast of Connecticut? No Comment [Wall Street Journal]
- Why furniture got so bad [Washington Post]
- The Fed May Have Broken US Housing Market, Famous Economist El-Erian Says [The Messenger]
- Real-Estate Doom Loop Threatens America’s Banks [Wall Street Journal]
- Real estate is taking a beating. Blame NAR and reality TV [Inman]
- Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in July to New High; Up 2.9% Year-over-year [Calculated Risk]
- What’s Worse Than Record High Rent? Record High Rent, Plus Fees. [Wall Street Journal]
- The Ground-Floor Window Into What’s Ailing Downtowns [NY Times]
My New Content, Research and Mentions
- Supply Shortage Chokes Manhattan, Brooklyn Resi Markets [The Real Deal]
- Hamptons, North Fork Resi Markets Pick Up [The Real Deal]
- Multimillion-Dollar Home Buyers Were Busy Last Month in a Few Key Cities [Mansion Global]
- Newly Signed House Contracts Tank In Palm Beach County, But It's Not All Bad [BocaNewsNow.com]
- WSJ News Exclusive | Florida Car Dealership Owner Pays $76 Million for Aspen’s Most Expensive Home [Wall Street Journal]
- New NYC Law Against Short-Term Rentals Like Airbnb and Vrbo Goes Into Effect [Bon Voyaged]
- 10 Tuesday AM Reads – The Big Picture [Ritholtz]
- Transcript: Jonathan Miller – The Big Picture [Ritholtz]
- Brooklyn mansion is listed for $14M – one of borough's priciest homes [Daily Mail]
Recently Published Elliman Market Reports
- Elliman Report: California New Signed Contracts 8-2023 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Florida New Signed Contracts 8-2023 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: New York New Signed Contracts 8-2023 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Manhattan, Brooklyn & Queens Rentals 7-2023 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: California New Signed Contracts 7-2023 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Florida New Signed Contracts 7-2023 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: New York New Signed Contracts 7-2023 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: San Diego County Sales 2Q 2023 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Orange County Sales 2Q 2023 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Malibu + Malibu Beach Sales 2Q 2023 [Miller Samuel]
Appraisal Related Reads
- Cindy Chance named CEO of The Appraisal Institute [Housingwire]
- More cash buyers in today’s housing market [Sacramento Appraisal Blog]
- Waiving the Appraisal Gap Can be Both a Bargaining Chip and Big-Time Risk for Home Buyers [Wall Street Journal]
Extra Curricular Reads
- A Brief History of America's Appetite for Macaroni and Cheese [Smithsonian Magazine]
- The Decomposition of Rotten Tomatoes [Vulture]
- How Monopoly Became America’s Cruellest Board Game [New Yorker]
- The Pizza Shop That Took On Dave Portnoy and Barstool Sports [Bon Appetit]
- Rotten Tomatoes Is Rotten [Daring Fireball]
- Analysis | The most popular pizza style in every state, mapped [Washington Post]
- Jimmy Buffett, Roguish Bard of Island Escapism, Is Dead at 76 [NY Times]
- The Fight to Control Big Gay Ice Cream, Which Made the Rainbow Its Brand [NY Times]