Housing: Pay It Forward
Pay it forward with a twist. Wait for it…
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Did you miss last Friday’s Housing Notes?
September 22, 2023: Cranking The Housing Market Up To Eleven
FYI – The Q3 2023 Market Report Gauntlet Starts Next Week!
But I digress…
Newsday Breaks Out Our Long Island Town Price Data
Newsday asked us to break out the data from our Long Island market reports for Douglas Elliman: Elliman Reports: Q1 & Q2-2023 Long Island Sales:
It’s a monumentally cool effort by Newsday with great visualizations – the effort compared the first half of sales of 2023 with the first half of 2022.
The following chart is my favorite take on the data – it shows the price performance of the market by the change in median sales price.
99% Invisible Podcast – Office To Residential Conversions Explained
The 99% Invisible Podcast has been one of my favorites for years. In this episode, “Office Space,” a lot of explanations are shared about office to residential conversions. On the surface, low office occupancy meets record-high housing costs, a match made in heaven. Everyone talks about office-to-residential conversions as the solution to affordable housing, but the reality is different.
Urban Digs Webinar: Valuing Outdoor Space
This webinar was held during the previous week with several hundred people in attendance – I didn’t get the recording soon enough to post last Friday.
Noah and John at Urban Digs invited me to talk about my approach to valuing outdoor space in NYC. I documented my approach to its valuation back on May 5, 2010 on my Matrix blog, after years of getting calls from real estate agents asking how to value them, this post was born: [Terra Logic] Understanding The Value of Manhattan Apartment Outdoor Space. For other “How to” valuation discussions, please go here: “How to Value” and Other Favorite Posts
The outdoor space amenity goes for quite a premium, and its relationship has changed over the years, but my methodology remains sound. Urban Digs approaches it differently, but it comes out the same in the wash. I love these guys.
Zillow Gone Wild: I Can No More Walk
Post by @zillowgonewildView on Threads
This listing caught my attention not just for the basketball court but for the town’s name “Oconomowoc, WI” (say slowly with lots of syllables), where I got a speeding ticket in college after leaving the Miller Brewery (my speedometer conveniently hadn’t worked for months.)
Highest & Best: Can’t Quit Writing About Florida Offices!
I continue to love this new Florida newsletter: Highest & Best from Oshrat Carmiel, formerly of Bloomberg News…
Here’s one of this week’s stories, but check out the entire effort:
U.S. Census: Florida is Number 1 in Population Growth
CNBC: Redfin CEO Using RAMBO Quotes On Describing State Of Housing
I usually find Glen Kelman of Redfin very straightforward on these monthly data releases – bite-size comments and very quotable. The real estate tech sector dominates real estate public relations commentary.
Do you notice how rare it is to see NAR’s economists or brokerage CEOs from national real estate firms as go-to sources on these monthly data releases?
Social Media Update: Threads Is My New Go-to Social
Twitter (renamed “X”) had been my go-to platform for years, but engagement has collapsed, and it’s a growing cesspool of misinformation, bots, and negativity. I’ve taken “X” off my iPhone home page. I’ll check in periodically, but it’s no longer my “home.”
Still in its infancy, I’m enjoying Threads more and more as its features and engagement expand. I plan to spend more time there and on my seldom used Instagram account, the latter a place I view as the social media tool of choice for real estate. I dabble on Post and Mastadon a bit, but still prefer Threads despite its Meta heritage.
While we’re at it, I’ve long been a user of Feedly but I’ve found a new app called Artifact (created by the creator of Instagram) for my news feed. I still rely on Feedly, but Artifact has been a delight.
SLOK: 8 Months
An eight-month average seems consistent with economic forecasts of a mid-2024 rate cut.
My favorite housing market/economic charts of the week made by others
Apollo’s Torsten Slok‘s amazingly clear charts.
Kastle card swipe data charts
Remember that Kastle charts are overstating occupancy* because their pre-pandemic occupancy benchmark was 100%, which is simply incorrect (*measures card swipe activity as a proxy for occupancy).
My favorite random charts of the week made by others
Post by @ianbremmerView on Threads
Post by @profgallowayView on Threads
TAF’s Dave Bunton Is Retiring In 2024, And Hopefully His Legacy Will Too
For the uninitiated, TAF is the organization that wrote the bat-shit crazy letter, the chickenshit letter and is the subject of an active investigation by HUD on whether USPAP promotes a lack of diversity in the appraisal profession (400th out of 400 occupations according to BLS in 2021).
A bunch of people shared Dave Bunton‘s retirement news with me this week, and yet, it leaves me feeling more empty than hopeful. A year or two ago (whenever he signed his new 4-year contract, approved by the people he probably informally selected to be on the compensation committee), there was a plan in the monarchy to make Kelly the defacto day-to-day leader while he took it easy, collecting a paycheck. This plan was outed here in Appraiserville, and their plan was apparently scrubbed.
Those who follow TAF closely assume that Kelly will take the reigns and continue on the path that Dave has forged (as the only leader TAF ever had), including an incredible lack of diversity that exposed hard-working appraisers to racism claims. TAF’s dead-last diversity ranking is indefensible, and TAF created and maintained the 2-year mentoring system that is the root of the problem and the aging out of the profession. The median age of an appraiser is about 60.
The following is the typical feedback I am getting from this retirement announcement.
It’s really disheartening because I’m sure there are plenty of people like me, who would be interested in leading TAF but have no interest in doing so if real change can’t be accomplished.
Cincy MLS: Rapattoni Wins And Brokerages Stop Being Held Hostage By Board
What a cluster*ck – the Cincy MLS leadership should be purged for placing their self-interest ahead of the brokers in that market. They were financially connected with Perchwell and were willing to delay everything to get Perchwell into the MLS even though it was not ready.
OCAP, the Ohio Coalition of Appraisers, whom I have an affinity for and have spoken to a few times at their meetings in Columbus, was advising the MLS since last fall, which led up to this effort. It’s unclear how involved OCAP was advising the Board’s actions. From later posts it looks like they wanted Perchwell but pivoted to promoting a hybrid solution illustrated here.
Incidentally, the original choices by the MLS for the vote I’m told was A) Wait 8 weeks for Rapattoni to go online (yet it was already ready by August 23rd like the rest of the country as the Cincy MLS leadership had a financial interest in Perchwell!) or B) wait 2-3 weeks for Perchwell and jettison Rapattoni which would also necessarily delay access to the Cincy MLS.
In the first vote event, voting was somehow compromised, and a new vote was called to be held the following week (meanwhile, agents still did not have access to the MLS!)
There was pandemonium by the membership as a result and demands the MLS engage technical expertise to advise (after 3-4 weeks of sitting on their hands), but the time constraints were too much for T3. They were unable to provide due diligence quickly.
The MLS membership took a vote this week after the failed effort to force Perchwell through earlier:
The choice was to keep Rapattoni who was subjected to a ransomware attack and down for two weeks but was fully functional now in the rest of the country. Or vote for a hybrid solution as OCAP recommended above.
The real estate agents in the Cincy selected keeping the Rappatoni and ditching Perchwell by 2 to 1.
What a colossal mess and the misguided self-interested actions of the MLS board may have taken the wind out of the sales of the Cincy market. Congrats (sarcasm).
New AI CEO Hits The Ground Running
I’m adding this update just after Housing Notes was published.
Here is the text of an internal email sent shortly after AI’s new CEO arrived and she’s not wasting a minute righting the ship. Wow. This is actual leadership on display (Bold my emphasis).
Dear Chapter EDs,
I just sent the following note to AI staff, and we met, to discuss a reorganization that began today. We will have the opportunity to discuss this in greater detail when I see you and your member leaders in Louisville, but I’m committed to keeping you informed of key developments in a timely fashion.
Today I began implementing an extensive reorganization that will be completed by year-end, to better align our work together with the mission and strategic goals of the Appraisal Institute.
As a first step in the reorganization, I eliminated four leadership positions, letting impacted individuals know this morning: Chief Financial Officer and the Director Positions for Marketing, Communications, and Educational Resources. I know change is hard. At the same time, we remain focused on our goals; we are here to serve our members and the profession. We have some serious challenges that need to be addressed, but even greater opportunities. This reorganization will help clarify the extent of the challenges, enable us to address them, and allow us to begin to seize the Appraisal Institute’s significant opportunities.
We will move forward in the ways I’ve communicated to you since assuming the CEO role at the beginning of this month, with transparency, accountability, collaboration, continuous improvement, and professional conduct and service. That is the culture that will support our efforts. I encourage each of you to consider how best to contribute to our work as a team focused on goals, with our Chapter colleagues, and in collaboration with members and other key stakeholders. In the coming days and weeks, along with our Board and member leaders, I will be setting clear and ambitious goals, which will be communicated as this reorganization proceeds, and as it revitalizes the work of the Appraisal Institute.
Today we will have a brief call where I will describe these changes in more detail and answer your questions. Most importantly, please roll up your sleeves and bring your best thinking to the table. The goal-oriented approach mentioned above means that we will be relentlessly focusing on critical business priorities related to membership development, educational product and program development, thought leadership, member and constituent service, and stakeholder engagement. I look forward to your input on these priorities.
OFT (One Final Thought)
I’ve shared this before, but had to share again when I saw it in my feed last night because it is so fun. Disclaimer: I long-ago burned out on all the real estate reality shows.
Brilliant Idea #1
If you need something rock solid in your life (particularly on Friday afternoons at 2 p.m.) and someone forwarded this to you, , or you think you already subscribed, sign up here for these weekly Housing Notes. And be sure to share with a friend or colleague if you enjoy them because:
– They’ll pay it forward;
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– And I’ll stay dry (record rainstorm in NYC).
Brilliant Idea #2
You’re clearly full of insights and ideas as a reader of these Housing Notes. Please share them with me early and often. I appreciate every email I receive, as it helps me craft the following week’s Housing Note.
See you next week!
Reads, Listens and Visuals I Enjoyed
- What New York homeowners and renters should know about flood insurance.
- Watching the Southern Tip of Manhattan Change, for Forty Years
- Can't Quit Writing About Florida Offices! [Highest and Best]
- Fannie and Freddie: Single-Family Mortgage Delinquency Rate Declined, Multi-Family Increased in August [Calculated Risk]
- The Refinery at Domino unveils office space at historic Williamsburg sugar factory [6sqft]
- New York is breaking free of Airbnb's clutches. This is how the rest of the world can follow suit | Anna Minton [The Guardian]
- Home Prices and Interest Rates Still Rising, Shutting Out More Potential Homebuyers [JCHS Harvard]
- Q3 2023 U.S. Home Affordability Heat Map [Tableau Public]
- New York Is Rebounding for the Rich. Nearly Everyone Else Is Struggling. [NY Times]
- Did big expectations doom the tiny house movement? [Grist]
- The Skyscraper That Could Have Toppled Over in the Wind [New Yorker]
- Office Space [99% Invisible Podcast]
- Short-Term Rental Registration [NYC311]
- Real Estate Heiress Hatched Plan to Demolish Marilyn Monroe Home [The Real Deal]
My New Content, Research and Mentions
- Inside The Agency’s Arrival in The Hamptons [The Real Deal]
- WSJ News Exclusive | A West Chelsea Condo Is Looking to Join Downtown Manhattan’s Penthouse Craze [Wall Street Journal]
- A West Chelsea Condo Is Looking to Join Downtown Manhattan’s Penthouse Craze [Mansion Global]
- Here's where Long Island home prices rose and fell the most in the first half of 2023 [Newsday]
- Can Trump's Real Estate Empire Survive Now? [The Messenger]
- Castle Village Is a Snapshot of the Pressures on City Co-ops and Condos [Habitat Magazine]
Recently Published Elliman Market Reports
- Elliman Report: Delray Beach Sales 2Q 2023 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Deerfield Beach Sales 2Q 2023 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Coral Gables Sales 2Q 2023 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Boca Raton 2Q 2023 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Manhattan, Brooklyn & Queens Rentals 8-2023 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: California New Signed Contracts 8-2023 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Florida New Signed Contracts 8-2023 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: New York New Signed Contracts 8-2023 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Manhattan, Brooklyn & Queens Rentals 7-2023 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: California New Signed Contracts 7-2023 [Miller Samuel]
Appraisal Related Reads
- Conservation Easements: Palpable Fraud or Honest Mistakes? A Federal Jury Returns a Split Verdict [JD Supra]
- Chuck Norris eats 8% rates for breakfast [Sacramento Appraisal Blog]
- The Pitfalls of Outlier Sales in Pricing a Listing [Birmingham Appraisal Blog]
- It’s a Great Time to Leave the Appraisal Profession [Appraisers Blogs]
Extra Curricular Reads
- How to Stop Eating Sugar [NY Times]
- New York’s Hottest Steakhouse Was a Fake, Until Saturday Night [NY Times]
- The new phone call etiquette: Text first and never leave a voice mail [Washington Post]
- We Are Not at War. We Are at Work. [The Atlantic]
- FOUND: lunch with an old friend [Found NY]
- Historians race to find Great Lakes shipwrecks before quagga mussels destroy the sites [AP News]