Snakes and Ladders: Climbing Out Of The Housing Pit

September 25, 2020

Before I forget, last Saturday was International Talk Like A Pirate Day. You have until next year to practice the “talk.” Until then, you need to stay away from snakes – the following video shows you how…wait for it…

But I digress…

NY Fed: GDP Growth Rate Is Halfway Back

I thought this Weekly Economic Index by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York was encouraging but still dire.

Spectacular Failures: Subprime times at Countrywide Financial

As we’ve discussed the documentary on previous editions of Housing Notes, its good to look back in time every now and then to understand how we got here. Especially because we a much better understanding of what happened with the additional context of experience. We’ll do the same thing after the COVID crisis is resolved (fingers crossed).

I’m a regular listener to the podcast, Spectacular Failures, and this week covers the Countrywide meltdown.


[click to go to episode landing page]

The show notes for this podcast are full of goodies. Here are two of them:

One of the provided commercials:

And an interview with Angelo Mozilo, whose only lesson learned seems to be that he should have not been in public so much. His company did nothing wrong and he did nothing wrong? Apparently, that was the lesson he learned. His comments in this interview show he is not remorseful and clueless or heartless about the real damage he caused.

Churn is Good: The “Fleeing The City” Narrative Is Cooling

Felix Salmon writes his “Capital” column for Axios and last week was a good one: The math of New York City’s recovery

Affordability passed the point where a correction was needed….

New York, like San Francisco, entered 2020 with one overarching problem: It was far too expensive, as a place to live and work. The pandemic has fixed that problem, with both commercial and residential rents finally coming back into the realm of (relative) affordability.

and immigration policy determines the future path…

The catch: The main driver of both new business formation and population growth in New York has historically been international immigration. So long as immigration remains suppressed, New York will suffer.

Record Low Listing Inventory Is Not A Good Thing

The combination of record-low inventory and record low mortgage rates may very well be a long term economic problem. Those consumers may be more vulnerable to an economic shock since they squeezed into a rapidly rising housing price market because of the good fortune of low rates. Mortgage rates have been falling for the last few years in a strong economy because of the Fed’s management of the trade war with China to keep the economy out of a recession. Yet COVID brought on a historic recession and exposed the chronic lack of supply, partly because new housing development’s focus has been skewed to the higher-end products for a smaller subset of demand since the last recession.

This WSJ chart is mind-blowing.

Look at the price gains in NAR’s median sales price by region and nationwide in the Mansion Global piece. That rate of growth is not sustainable.

Amazon Rooms Are the New Home Offices of the New Safe Rooms

This Hollywood Reporter story “Amazon Room” Becomes Hot Amenity for Hollywood Homebuyers Amid Pandemic relies on an LA luxury real estate broker’s take that “Amazon Rooms” are a new thing for high-end homes.

In a COVID-19 world, buyers are looking for a room to store the many packages that arrive, and also a spot for them to decontaminate before opening.

Wondering if using the garage or spare bedroom wouldn’t be easier?

Bisnow Tri-State Digital Summit Keynote – Digging Out

Yesterday I gave a digital keynote presentation for Bisnow. The purpose of the entire event was to provide an understanding of where real estate is at the moment and where it is going.

Getting Graphic

Our favorite charts of the week of our own making

Len Kiefer‘s Chart Handiwork

Upcoming Speaking Events

Too many to list here – ran out of time!

Appraiserville

(For earlier appraisal industry commentary, visit my old clunky REIC site.)

I took a break from being an appraisal curmudgeon this week. Jim and Dave can rest easy for now.

OFT (One Final Thought)

The sheer drudgery of data collection back then is overwhelming to consider in the current world.

Brilliant Idea #1

If you need something rock solid in your life (particularly on Friday afternoons) and someone forwarded this to you, or you think you already subscribed, sign up here for these weekly Housing Notes. And be sure to share with a friend or colleague if you enjoy them because:

– They’ll be more paleo;
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– And I’ll murder my next appraisal report with excellence.

Brilliant Idea #2

You’re obviously full of insights and ideas as a reader of Housing Notes. I appreciate every email I receive and it helps me craft the next week’s Housing Note.

See you next week.

Jonathan J. Miller, CRP, CRE, Member of RAC
President/CEO
Miller Samuel Inc.
Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants
Matrix Blog
@jonathanmiller

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