Have a terrific holiday weekend!!! This edition is a bit short, but reality begins in the housing market again after the long weekend.
Since the financial crisis, I’ve been approached a dozen times to be associated with a housing-related reality show but never said yes. I envision one like the following to get me to say yes.
Did you miss last Friday’s Housing Notes?
August 25, 2023: Adding Drama To The Housing Market
But I digress…
Bloomberg’s Masters in Business: Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates
Here are the previous interviews from 2014, 2016, 2020, 2021 and 2022. They are always fun, and Barry keeps the conversation interesting. My wife Cheryl was in the producer’s booth, keeping me honest (and taking pictures).
NAR Is Going Through An Ethical Reset
Inman News’ key points derived from the NYT expose´ on the organization’s exposure and the fact that “denial” is the primary plan.
And all this is occurring on top of the ongoing antitrust peril with the DOJ on buyer broker commissions after DOJ withdraws their their settlement agreement with NAR two years ago.
It looks like $100 Billion in how annual broker fees are paid on the line.
Difficulty With Insurance On New Homes Are Slowing New Home Sales
The latest survey by John Burns shows insurance challenges in California (wildfires) and Florida (hurricanes). the home-insurance premium in Florida has tripled over the past five years.
What happens when homeowners can no longer afford their home insurance? They bail, and the risk exposure is enormous: WSJ – Americans Are Bailing on Their Home Insurance.
Work From Home Is Stabilizing?
The share of US workers working from home (WFH) at least part of the week has stabilized at around 20-25%, below its peak of 47% at the height of the pandemic but well above the pre-pandemic average of 2.6%.
After looking for commercial office space in Manhattan, this seems wildly low.
Highest & Best Newsletter: Cruel Summer for Florida Airbnb Owners
I love this new Florida newsletter: Highest & Best from Oshrat Carmiel, formerly of Bloomberg News…
Airbnb rents are falling in Florida – Cruel Summer for Florida Airbnb Owners
U.S. Airbnb owners are struggling nationwide with falling rental rates, rising mortgage rates and over saturation of their listings. NYC is cracking down on Airbnb listings that flout the 30-day minimum stay in multiple-family buildings.
Celebrity Premium: Only Murders In The Building
Generally, I have found during my appraisal career in Manhattan that celebrity premiums don’t have much impact. Still, with a hit TV show, I’m not as confident in this example: Only Murders In The Building.
The Messenger interviews me for this one after crunching a few numbers.
My favorite housing market/economic charts of the week made by us
My favorite housing market/economic charts of the week made by others
Apollo’s Torsten Slok‘s amazingly clear charts.
Kastle card swipe data charts
Remember that Kastle charts are overstating occupancy* because their pre-pandemic occupancy benchmark was 100%, which is simply incorrect (*measures card swipe activity as a proxy for occupancy).
My favorite random charts of the week made by others
There’s not much to report this week, so let’s enjoy the long weekend.
OFT (One Final Thought)
Incidentally, the embed code feature stopped working on X (formerly known as Twitter) a few days ago, but threads.net has enabled the same feature, thank goodness.
Post by @profgallowayView on Threads
Brilliant Idea #1
If you need something rock solid in your life (particularly on Friday afternoons at 2 p.m.) and someone forwarded this to you, , or you think you already subscribed, sign up here for these weekly Housing Notes. And be sure to share with a friend or colleague if you enjoy them because:
– They’ll do a reality show;
– You’ll do a reality show;
– And I’ll not do a reality show.
Brilliant Idea #2
You’re clearly full of insights and ideas as a reader of these Housing Notes. Please share them with me early and often. I appreciate every email I receive, as it helps me craft the following week’s Housing Note.
See you next week!
Reads, Listens and Visuals I Enjoyed
- What’s Worse Than Record High Rent? Record High Rent, Plus Fees. [Wall Street Journal]
- The Ground-Floor Window Into What’s Ailing Downtowns [NY Times]
- Cruel Summer for Florida Airbnb Owners [Highest & Best]
- Americans Are Bailing on Their Home Insurance [Wall Street Journal]
- Fed Chair Jerome Powell Hints More Interest Rate Hikes May Be On The Way [Bisnow]
- Qatar Investment Authority Buys Park Lane Hotel from Witkoff [The Real Deal]
- 5 massive NYT takeaways NAR can't escape [Inman]
- Why Are Mortgage Rates So High, and How Long Will They Stay Up? [NY Times]
- 🏠 Markets Weekend: Home truths [Axios]
- Women Say Sexual Harassment and Discrimination Is Rife in Group for Realtors [NY Times]
My New Content, Research and Mentions
- Brooklyn mansion is listed for $14M – one of borough's priciest homes [Daily Mail]
- Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates [Bloomberg]
- Selena Gomez’s 'Only Murders In The Building' Is Pushing Up Prices at This New York Building [The Messenger]
- Cash buyers wield a new level of power in the property market [Financial Times]
- Bargains or Money Pits? LI’s Gold Coast Estates Seek Buyers [The Real Deal]
- Kips Bay condo project brings small sign of life to city’s residential pipeline [Crain's New York]
- A Brooklyn Townhouse Built More Than 100 Years Ago Lists for $14 Million [Mint WSJ]
- Ex-Time Warner CEO buys co-op from renowned microbiologist [Crain's New York]
- Manhattan, New York, rent prices reached another record, but other regions in US are seeing relief [Fox Business]
- Manhattan Rents Hit Record High As Lease Activity Slumps, Indicating Deepening Affordability Crisis [ZeroHedge]
- Manhattan's Condo Kings are Migrating South [Highest & Best]
- Mortgage rates are now just shy of 7% [Yahoo Finance]
- Rents in Manhattan, Brooklyn soar to new records. When will the monthly increases end? [Daily News]
- Manhattan's average monthly rent surges to $5,588 [AOL]
- New York City Apartment Rent Skyrockets, Hitting New Record – Parade: Entertainment, Recipes, Health, Life, Holidays [Parade]
- Want to rent in Manhattan? You’ll have to spend nearly $70,000 a year. [MarketWatch]
- Average Manhattan monthly rent rises to record $5,588 [News 10]
- The Mad Dash to South Florida by Manhattan Real Estate Players [The Messenger]
Recently Published Elliman Market Reports
- Elliman Report: Manhattan, Brooklyn & Queens Rentals 7-2023 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: California New Signed Contracts 7-2023 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Florida New Signed Contracts 7-2023 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: New York New Signed Contracts 7-2023 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: San Diego County Sales 2Q 2023 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Orange County Sales 2Q 2023 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Malibu + Malibu Beach Sales 2Q 2023 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Los Angeles Sales 2Q 2023 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: North Fork Sales 2Q 2023 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Hamptons Sales 2Q 2023 [Miller Samuel]
Appraisal Related Reads
- Waiving the Appraisal Gap Can be Both a Bargaining Chip and Big-Time Risk for Home Buyers [Wall Street Journal]
- 15 Reasons Your Home May Not Appraise for the Expected Value: Tips for Homeowners [Birmingham Appraisal Blog]
Extra Curricular Reads
- Analysis | The most popular pizza style in every state, mapped [Washington Post]
- Jimmy Buffett, Roguish Bard of Island Escapism, Is Dead at 76 [NY Times]
- The Fight to Control Big Gay Ice Cream, Which Made the Rainbow Its Brand [NY Times]
- A 3D interactive map of the shade provided by every single NYC street tree [Boing Boing]