Housing Reality Shows

Have a terrific holiday weekend!!! This edition is a bit short, but reality begins in the housing market again after the long weekend.

Since the financial crisis, I’ve been approached a dozen times to be associated with a housing-related reality show but never said yes. I envision one like the following to get me to say yes.

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Did you miss last Friday’s Housing Notes?

August 25, 2023: Adding Drama To The Housing Market

But I digress…

Bloomberg’s Masters in Business: Jonathan Miller on High Mortgage Rates

I joined my friend Barry Ritholtz of RWM and of The Big Picture on his Bloomberg Radio MIB podcast for the sixth time since 2014. Here’s the podcast version!

Here are the previous interviews from 2014, 2016, 2020, 2021 and 2022. They are always fun, and Barry keeps the conversation interesting. My wife Cheryl was in the producer’s booth, keeping me honest (and taking pictures).

NAR Is Going Through An Ethical Reset

This week, the President of NAR, Kenny Parcell, resigned after a front-page New York Times investigative piece by Debra Kamin that exposed a culture of sexual harassment.

Inman News’ key points derived from the NYT expose´ on the organization’s exposure and the fact that “denial” is the primary plan.

And all this is occurring on top of the ongoing antitrust peril with the DOJ on buyer broker commissions after DOJ withdraws their their settlement agreement with NAR two years ago.

It looks like $100 Billion in how annual broker fees are paid on the line.

Difficulty With Insurance On New Homes Are Slowing New Home Sales

The latest survey by John Burns shows insurance challenges in California (wildfires) and Florida (hurricanes). the home-insurance premium in Florida has tripled over the past five years.

What happens when homeowners can no longer afford their home insurance? They bail, and the risk exposure is enormous: WSJ – Americans Are Bailing on Their Home Insurance.

Work From Home Is Stabilizing?

The share of US workers working from home (WFH) at least part of the week has stabilized at around 20-25%, below its peak of 47% at the height of the pandemic but well above the pre-pandemic average of 2.6%.

After looking for commercial office space in Manhattan, this seems wildly low.

Highest & Best Newsletter: Cruel Summer for Florida Airbnb Owners

I love this new Florida newsletter: Highest & Best from Oshrat Carmiel, formerly of Bloomberg News…

Airbnb rents are falling in Florida – Cruel Summer for Florida Airbnb Owners

[Source: AirDNA, Compiled by Highest and Best]

Some context…

U.S. Airbnb owners are struggling nationwide with falling rental rates, rising mortgage rates and over saturation of their listings. NYC is cracking down on Airbnb listings that flout the 30-day minimum stay in multiple-family buildings.

Celebrity Premium: Only Murders In The Building

Generally, I have found during my appraisal career in Manhattan that celebrity premiums don’t have much impact. Still, with a hit TV show, I’m not as confident in this example: Only Murders In The Building.

The Messenger interviews me for this one after crunching a few numbers.

Selena Gomez’s ‘Only Murders In The Building’ Is Pushing Up Prices at This New York Building

Getting Graphic

My favorite housing market/economic charts of the week made by us

My favorite housing market/economic charts of the week made by others

Apollo’s Torsten Slok‘s amazingly clear charts.

Lance Lambert (@NewsLambert), @FortuneMagazine real estate editor has become a go-to resource for his terrific graphics and articles on the state of the housing market:

Kastle card swipe data charts

Remember that Kastle charts are overstating occupancy* because their pre-pandemic occupancy benchmark was 100%, which is simply incorrect (*measures card swipe activity as a proxy for occupancy).

My favorite random charts of the week made by others

Appraiserville

There’s not much to report this week, so let’s enjoy the long weekend.

OFT (One Final Thought)

Incidentally, the embed code feature stopped working on X (formerly known as Twitter) a few days ago, but threads.net has enabled the same feature, thank goodness.

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Brilliant Idea #1

If you need something rock solid in your life (particularly on Friday afternoons at 2 p.m.) and someone forwarded this to you, , or you think you already subscribed, sign up here for these weekly Housing Notes. And be sure to share with a friend or colleague if you enjoy them because:

– They’ll do a reality show;
– You’ll do a reality show;
– And I’ll not do a reality show.

Brilliant Idea #2

You’re clearly full of insights and ideas as a reader of these Housing Notes. Please share them with me early and often. I appreciate every email I receive, as it helps me craft the following week’s Housing Note.

See you next week!

Jonathan J. Miller, CRE, Member of RAC
President/CEO
Miller Samuel Inc.
Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants
Matrix Blog
@jonathanmiller