Many Made The Wrong Election Call Predicting The End Of NYC’s High-end Housing Market
Takeways
Despite “wealth flight” headlines about the next NYC Mayor Mamdani, current data show no evidence of a high-end exodus, and NYC’s luxury segment remains active.
Global and Manhattan price data indicate a flat-to-muted decade of condo appreciation, but also show that New York remains one of the top high-end housing markets worldwide.
While the doom narrative about the new NYC mayor has been debunked, it illustrates how critical high-end real estate has been to tax revenue and the housing market.
For the past two months, I’ve been thoroughly agitated by the gloom-and-doom flow of misinformation about the new mayor, that suggested the end of the NYC high-end real estate market. For my sanity, I need to go through this one more time with you by sharing some new discussions on the topic. Billionaires lined up to fund alternative candidates with the same old messaging that didn’t resonate. There was intense criticism of the now, new mayor being pushed by cable news outlets and tabloids. The media echo chamber made this NYC election a national election. Yet current housing market results clearly showed a city housing market kicking a$$. To date, there has been no sign of the wealthy “fleeing the city.’ I quickly addressed this point back on November 4, 2025, NYC’s election day, in NYC Housing Wealth Exodus Only In Headlines and Hearsay. Check out Knight Frank’s Global Super-Prime Intelligence 2025 Q3 Report to relate NYC performance to the rest of the world.
CNBC: Why Manhattan Condos Are Selling At A Loss
Manhattan housing prices have been flat for the past decade. The proliferation of popular reality TV and the media’s focus on nine-digit sale prices have led the lion’s share of the public to have a distorted view of the housing market. Affordability is a challenge in the Manhattan market, as it is across much of the US. CNBC did a terrific job breaking it down from the ROI perspective: Why Manhattan Condos Are Selling At A Loss.
USA Today: Are the rich fleeing Mamdani’s Manhattan? Not according to the data.
I looked at the election statistics in Wikipedia below and noticed there was a candidate named “Paperboy Prince?” Because the NYC election was followed closely nationwide, I was not surprised to see USA Today step in. Their piece does a great job of arguing that there is no empirical evidence that the wealthy are fleeing the city at this point. Why should we care about the rich? They are driving the high-end real estate market, which is outperforming the remainder by sales growth, and real estate-related revenue accounts for more than half of NYC’s tax receipts.
USA Today: Are the rich fleeing Mamdani’s Manhattan? Not according to the data.
Knight Frank: Will Mayor Mamdani sink the luxury New York housing market?
I’ve been trading data and insights with Knight Frank’s research team, the global real estate group based in London for roughly twenty years. Every so often Liam Bailey, the global Head of Research interviews me for one of their podcast series which I always enjoy. This one was Intelligence Talksfor the episode: Will Mayor Mamdani sink the luxury New York housing market? And check out their Global Super-Prime Intelligence Report which provides insights on the high-end properties around the world, including the US.
Final Thoughts
Over the past two months, sensational coverage of New York’s mayoral race painted a false picture of imminent collapse in the city’s high-end housing market, but it failed to gain traction. In reality, which is not reflected on cable news, current sales, price, and rent trends show wealthy buyers are not fleeing Manhattan, and the luxury segment continues to outperform the broader market.
Happy Thanksgiving to all my readers and their families! After days of gluttony anticipated with family, I plan to hit the ground running on Monday here on Housing Notes and my What It Means Podcast.
The Actual Final Thought – The national discussion of the NYC mayoral election echoes this song that I watched live on TV back in 1990.
