Let’s Argue About The State Of The Housing Market
Monty Python was a big part of my media consumption as a kid. (No, it wasn’t. Yes, it was!)
"Is this the right room for an argument?"
— Michael Warburton (@MichaelWarbur17) October 9, 2022
But I digress…
How’s NYC Housing Doing? Sort Of Ok, Relative To Other U.S..
Here’s a borough-by-borough breakout that compares against pre-pandemic conditions. As a whole, NYC prices are up, sales are up, and listing inventory is down slightly. The sales and listing inventory changes vary by borough with the pre-pandemic (2019) comparisons.
And this series of charts provide some additional context for pre-pandemic, post-lockdown, and current.
My Interview on Crosstown with Pat Kiernan – What can we do about NYC’s housing crisis?
I’m a big fan of Pat Kiernan, the star anchor for Spectrum News NY1. I especially like his “in the papers” spots and I’ve been on his morning show a few times. He interviewed me virtually to set the stage to describe NYC’s housing challenge.
Check it out!
Mortgage Rates Are Falling, But Freddie Mac Changed The Methodology
With four consecutive 0.75 increases in the federal funds rate, mortgage rates seem to be trying to fall.
On the other hand, Freddie Mac changed the methodology and stopped tracking the 5/1 rate.
Given how many consumers have been pivoting to hybrid rates and away from the 30-year fixed, I find their decision bizarre. I wish I understand the actual reason for that decision.
The Brick Underground Podcast: Making sense of the NYC real estate market with Jonathan Miller
I always enjoy my conversations with Emily Myers of Brick Underground, a must-read NYC housing market resource.
Those Ion Batteries Are A Hazard In Residential Buildings
There was a fascinating article in The City (a publication I hope thrives) about the fire in NYC caused by ebikes and legislation seeking to ban them from inside NYCHA buildings. Here’s a lawyer’s take.
In 2020, the FDNY tracked 94 e-bike battery related fires, and 104 in 2021. But this year the number of incidents have skyrocketed, with 188 of these fires as of last week. These fires, which accelerate quickly, have done serious damage, causing six deaths and 139 injuries, including 38 at 429 E. 52nd St.
Look Where The Mortgage-Free Homes Are!
There was a great Bloomberg piece using ATTOM data on homes that are mortgage-free.
The results really correlate with higher priced houses by NYC borough…
And largely coastal cities in the U.S.
Doubling Down On The Anti-Pie Chart Movement To Clean Your Palate Before Thanksgiving
These are pulled from a hilarious pie chart thread started by Conrad Hackett. He starts with an awful chart…
We’ve got this old chestnut…
And its alternative versions…
And these cartoon versions…
My favorite HOUSING/ECONOMIC MARKET CHARTS of the week made by others
Since peaking in Jul, the Misery Index–y/y CPI (blue) + unemployment (magenta)–has rolled over a bit but is still high. Getting inflation down while keeping unemployment contained is the dream scenario, but unemployment is likely to move up, at least slightly, in the near-term. pic.twitter.com/iZpMMPHFvH
— Liz Young (@LizYoungStrat) November 18, 2022
Philly Fed six-month pricing plans sag to the lowest level since May 2020. And hiring intentions are practically tied for a six-year low. Keep tightening, Jay!#RosenbergResearch pic.twitter.com/WxI9ifwHML
— David Rosenberg (@EconguyRosie) November 18, 2022
My favorite RANDOM CHARTS of the week made by others
(For earlier appraisal industry commentary, visit my old clunky REIC site.)
Ryan Lundquist Drops Some Market Knowledge On Us
My friend Ryan of the Sacramento Appraisal Blog shows why he’s the trusted appraiser in his market (and elsewhere as well). Appraisers have the data and are more neutral in the home buying process than agents who are working for a commission. I’ve always wondered why our profession doesn’t have more “Ryans’ that share market insights with consumers in their local markets. Our industry was made for this position!
Take a listen…
AI CEO Unexpectedly Resigns Immediately After The New President Is Sworn In
The following announcement was shared with the membership of the Appraisal Institute on Thursday. Myself and my colleagues nationwide who have had hoped for this moment for years, were ecstatic. It was an early Christmas.
And covered in The Real Deal, a national real estate trade magazine: Appraisal Institute CEO Resigns which linked out to many of my writings that have been closely read and followed by the Appraisal Institute Board of Directors over the years.
All the FOJ sycophants who went after my colleagues and me, even threatened me personally, will now be without their Dear Leader. All those plummy teaching assignments to a handful of regulars who toe the FOJ line, baskets full of first-class airfare to Europe and China with their emotional support spouses paid for by hard-working members, plus a laundry list of other mindless perks will hopefully be brought under control. He’s still in place until mid-February, but at least there is an end date and a potential return of relevance of this once-great organization. I’m excited about the future of AI, even though this is only one person. In reality, the removal of this person matters to enable real change.
But I ask myself: Why has CEO Jim Amorin mysteriously resigned one and a half years before the end of an incredibly lucrative self-dealt contract?
– I assume he will say he wants to pursue other opportunities, spend more time with his family, move back to Austin after becoming tired of living in Chicago.
– But Jim Amorin has been the master of this organizational taking for years – he’s one of the best I’ve ever observed – I can’t believe he would quit like this, especially after manipulating the rules for the last three years of sham petition elections to make sure the C-suite was loaded with FOJs and would not be a threat. He just secured Paula K, so he was set to continue running amok with the organization.
– Why would he leave immediately after Craig Steinley, NOT an FOJ, got installed as the next President?
I can only speculate that there was a significant and sudden reason for his departure, possibly bad behavior that was documented, and I wonder if it has to do with the audit committee. And there is precedent for this, as seen in the recent RICS scandal, where information from the executive team was not forthcoming to the audit committee. I’m just spitballing here, but the math for his leaving doesn’t make sense otherwise.
The Real Deal article quoted the local NYC chapter head as saying:
the organization under Amorin is representing residential appraisers well
and a recent post on an appraisal forum that said:
Jim’s tenure as CEO hasn’t been all bad. In fact, the AI has made a conscious and concrete effort at expanding its service and outreach to residential appraisers.
The first quote was about someone politically afraid to cross anyone in Chicago, and the second was about someone who only shared the common talking points that aren’t grounded in reality.
To be clear, the main leadership criticism by the outside world has been largely around AI’s lack of effort toward growing residential membership. Remember that residential committee that Jim formed circa 2017? They’ve never produced anything. It was created to slow the rage building over the plan to take all local chapter funds and put them in control of HQ. Forming a residential committee with good residential appraisers but not doing anything to advance them in the organization or industry doesn’t qualify as doing something for residential membership.
– Jim Amorin will be a lame duck until February 14th, which doesn’t mean he can’t further damage the organization’s reputation.
– How Golden will his parachute be? I can only imagine that it’s huge considering his 1.5 to 2x salary over the industry “comps.”
– How will his FOJs fair in this post-FOJ era? People like the Sellers’ already lost key chairmanships (more on that later) in the Steinley era.
– The FOJs should not have control of executive search because they’ll install a current board member to keep the sham going. Although even if they are able to do this, I highly doubt that anyone would be as adept at Jim Amorin was in destroying accountable governance.
– It would be exciting to see AI revamp their course offerings and extract the deep-seated politics that keep new, younger people out of teaching them. McKissock is very generic and AI has not invested in the future but instead, rested on its laurels for several decades.
I am very excited about the future of the Appraisal Institute and the potential to return to its former position as an institution with credibility to be relied on by stakeholders in the real estate industry.
OFT (One Final Thought)
This is the key principle the old guard thinks about remote work. I remember seeing this old FedEx commercial years ago.
Brilliant Idea #1
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Reads, Listens and Visuals I Enjoyed
- US Mortgage Rates Post Biggest Drop Since 1981, Falling to 6.61% [Bloomberg]
- WSJ News Exclusive | After More Than a Decade On and Off the Market, Southampton’s Linden Estate Fetches $70 Million [Wall Street Journal]
- Mortgage Rates [FreddieMac]
- Housing Investors Are Not Your Boogeyman [Market Urbanism Report]
- Conversions to Address Just 2 Percent of Office Market: CBRE [The Real Deal]
- The Opulent World of the Estate-Sale Queen of Dallas [The New Yorker]
- ‘I Finally Had Enough.’ Real-Estate Agents Reveal Why They Canned a Client [Wall Street Journal]
- Is a shortage of scaffolding affecting construction? [RICS]
- So Much Gilt! So Much Leopard! Ivana Trump’s New York Townhouse Is a Shrine to 1980s Excess [Dirt]
- Migration to Environmentally Risky Areas: A Consequence of the Pandemic [FreddieMac]
- Superstar Agent Aaron Kirman leaving Compass for Christie's [The Real Deal]
- E-Bikes do not B-Long [Gallet Dreyer & Berkey, LLP]
- Inside founder of Yankee Candle’s home for sale in Leverett [WWLP]
- US Home Prices Falling 15% Looks “Conservative”: KPMG [The Real Deal]
- WSJ News Exclusive | In Latest Off-Market Deal, Aspen Mansion Sells for $48 Million [Wall Street Journal]
- Compass is vulnerable — mostly because its tech is falling apart [Business Insider]
- Aspen Mansion Sells for $69 Million in One of the Area’s Priciest-Ever Deals [Wall Street Journal]
- The Luxury Home Market Posts Its Biggest Decline in a Decade. ‘It’s Like Crickets.’ [Wall Street Journal]
- LIVE From New York, the Beigie Awards! — The Indicator from Planet Money — Overcast [NPR]
- Housing Stands in the Way of a September Fed Pivot [Bloomberg]
- Here Are the US Cities With the Biggest Share of Mortgage-Free Homes [Bloomberg]
- Powerless Tenants and Landlord Raised Alarms About E-Bikes That Sparked Midtown Blaze [The City]
My New Content, Research and Mentions
- My Interview on Crosstown with Pat Kiernan – What can we do about NYC’s housing crisis? [Matrix Blog]
- NYC Waterfront Towers Get $385 Million in Construction Loans [Bloomberg]
- He Thought His Home Might Sell for $30 Million. Fifteen Months Later, It’s ‘The Steal of the Century.’ [Wall Street Journal]
- WSJ News Exclusive | Hair Removal Mogul Looks to Break Miami’s Condo Record with $85 Million Listing [Wall Street Journal]
- Manhattan "Luxury Rent Through The Roof" Despite "Overall Market Peaks" [ZeroHedge]
- Crosstown with Pat Kiernan [NY1]
Recently Published Elliman Market Reports
- Elliman Report: Manhattan, Brooklyn & Queens Rentals 10-2022 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Colorado New Signed Contracts 10-2022 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: California New Signed Contracts 10-2022 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Normandy Isles/Normandy Shores New Signed Contracts 10-2022 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Florida New Signed Contracts 10-2022 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: New York New Signed Contracts 10-2022 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: San Diego County Sales 3Q 2022 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Orange County Sales 3Q 2022 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Malibu + Malibu Beach Sales 3Q 2022 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Los Angeles Sales 3Q 2022 [Miller Samuel]
Appraisal Related Reads
- Appraisal Institute CEO Jim Amorin Resigns [The Real Deal]
- Hot Topic Highlight – RICS Independent Review by Alison Levitt QC [Property Elite]
- After a low appraisal, Black Seattle family 'whitewashes' home, gets higher price [King5]
- Sins of the Past Are Back to Haunt Appraisers [Working RE]
- The housing market will figure it out [Sacramento Appraisal Blog]
- Groundbreaking Research Confirms Discriminatory Bias in Appraisals [NFHA]
- Are Mar-a-Lago and other Trump-owned properties over-valued? [BBC]
- Home appraisers are fed up with how their industry is run [American Banker]
- Sacramento Appraisal Blog | Real Estate Appraiser – Real estate appraisals for divorce, estate settlement, loans, property tax appeal, pre-listing and more. We cover Sacramento, Placer and Yolo County. We're professional, courteous and timely. [Sacramento Appraisal Blog]
Extra Curricular Reads
- Twitter Teeters As Offices Shut Down, Employees Flee [SF Standard]
- A climb up Mt. Kilimanjaro before the storied snows turn to dust [LA Times]
- Why Jay Leno's steam car caused a gasoline fire [Hemmings]
- Mehran Karimi Nasseri, Who Inspired ‘The Terminal,’ Dies in Paris Airport [NY Times]
- Why a Phillies World Series win could spell disaster for Wall Street [NY Post]
- ‘Putin Is a Fool’: Intercepted Calls Reveal Russian Army in Disarray [NY Times]
- New Yorkers Need to Get Over Their Fear of Sharks [Hell Gate]
- Can a daily crossword puzzle slow cognitive decline? [Washington Post]