I have watched this clip a half dozen times, and the Walt Whitman quote it shares, “Be curious, not judgmental,” resonated.
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Did you miss last Friday’s Housing Notes?
November 3, 2023: The Housing Market Can’t Defeat The Laws Of Physics
But I digress…
The NYC Rental Market Is Past Peak
I’ve been the author of an expanding series of market reports for Douglas Elliman Real Estate since 1994. Our monthly New York City rental report series has been closely followed during the pandemic, given how much more immediately responsive the rental market is to economic change than the for-sale market.
Bloomberg posted a nifty chart in their coverage of our rental research.
NYC Rents Retreat From Record Highs as Market Starts to Cool [Bloomberg]
Elliman Report: October 2023 Manhattan, Brooklyn & Queens Rentals
MANHATTAN RENTAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
“The median rent continued to fall short of the August record.”
– Median rent has peaked as it hasn’t increased monthly since July
– New lease signings fell annually for the fourth straight month as landlords emphasized renewals
– The vacancy rate fell back below three percent after one month above the threshold
– Doorman new lease signings declined annually but remained well above pre-pandemic levels, while those from non-doorman buildings were slightly less than the prior year
– Rental price per square foot for new developments increased year over year for the seventh time
– Luxury price trend indicators declined year over year but remained sharply above pre-pandemic levels
– Luxury listing inventory declined annually for the second time in three quarters
– The luxury market share of bidding wars remained higher than the overall market
BROOKLYN RENTAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
“The median rent has fallen monthly since reaching a new high in July.”
– Median rent slipped annually for the first time in two years
– New lease signings expanded year over year for the first time in five months
– Listing inventory jumped annually for the second straight month
QUEENS RENTAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
– Median rent fell well short of August record for the second consecutive month
– New lease signings expanded year over year for the first time in seven months
– Listing inventory rose sharply year over year for the second straight month
Bad Bunny Rents A Manhattan Apartment for a Modest $150,000 Per month
Since the Manhattan rental market is slipping from peak pricing, I thought I would share last month’s rental to confuse the issue. Bad Bunny is spending $150,000 per month on a rental in Chelsea. In my experience, I’ve never observed a monthly rental above $125,000, and I’m not counting a one-month rental at the Waldorf-Astoria for $250,000 a while back because that shouldn’t count (hey, I make the rules here.)
The listing photos are great, but the best part is the outdoor space – you almost forget you are on the roof of a building.
Frances Katzen, a super broker with Douglas Elliman, takes us on a tour…
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The Economist Thrashes NAR On The Commission Fiasco (Even With Free Tacos!)
The ordinarily staid Economist magazine seems quite angry about the U.S. real estate commission practices in the U.S. in their recent story: Time to take a wrecking ball to realtors’ fees in America: A court case is a first step to ending a racket
How can I tell?
There’s a “Free Tacos!” notice on the for sale sign, and they didn’t mention it in the story’s opening paragraphs!
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FOUND NY: Exploring The Hamptons Middle – Its Softening
The former Curbed guys have a new sandbox to play in FOUND. They reach out to me when there’s real estate data involved, like they did back in the old Curbed days.
In the current issue, they explore the softening ‘Hamptons middle’ and more.
…with appreciation for both the Post’s poetry and Miller’s cold, hard facts…
Listing Inventory Remains The Key Housing Metric To Rely On
The lack of listings is distorting everything we know about housing trends. Sales are down, yet listing inventory is not up, so prices are not correcting. Calculated Risk has a good piece: Inventory will Tell the Tale. I mapped NAR EHS listing data by month and year – the lack of supply is a national housing condition.
Since at least 2008, U.S. listing inventory has never been lower.
NYC Slice Of Life, Illustrated
The following graphic is a fave and illustrates a skill that all New Yorkers must have. I just had this image framed for my home office as a reminder of the nuances of navigating the Big Apple. This book from my friend Nathan Pyle, NYC Basic Tips and Etiquette, came out about a decade ago but is still essential to those who move to NYC. He is also the author of the popular series Strange Planet. I once suggested a series on real estate appraisers to him, but he wasn’t interested. Ha.
Highest & Best Newsletter: The $60 Million Penthouse Issue
I continue to love this new Florida newsletter: Highest & Best from Oshrat Carmiel, formerly of Bloomberg News…
The $60 Million Penthouse Issue
One never-lived in resale, the other coming in 2027
Lots of resales being attempted at Estates at Acqualina in Miami. The fleet of Rolls Royce for residents’ use was enough to get my attention.
Speaking of attention, notice Michael Shvo’s view on existing Miami Beach office products. That’s why everyone seems to be building some.
That Corner Drawer In The Kitchen
We had one of these in a prior home we owned. It’s a constant reminder about a lack of future planning.
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This event occurred yesterday, and it was so oversubscribed they had to move it from the penthouse to the larger raw street-level retail space of this nearly sold-out new development. I shared it only because everyone is trying to do the math on the future of rates, supply, and demand.
My favorite housing market/economic charts of the week made by others
Apollo’s Torsten Slok‘s amazingly clear charts.
Kastle card swipe data charts
Remember that Kastle charts are overstating occupancy* because their pre-pandemic occupancy benchmark was 100%, which is simply incorrect (*measures card swipe activity as a proxy for occupancy).
My favorite random charts of the week made by others
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Insights On Objective Appraisals
Scott Reuter, the Single-Family Chief Appraisal Officer at Freddie Mac, is among the nicest and most knowledgeable in the appraisal profession. His insight article, is a good refresher on how we communicate our results.
The key advice here is not to speak like a salesperson – be objective in conveying the results. While the appraiser is tasked with presenting a credible report, selling the results does not mean “selling” the results.
OFT (One Final Thought)
As a twelve-year-old, I watched these roller derby matches after school when there was nothing to do. Something about wheels on a track hooked me in.
Brilliant Idea #1
If you need something rock solid in your life (particularly on Friday afternoons at 2 p.m.) and someone forwarded this to you, , or you think you already subscribed, sign up here for these weekly Housing Notes. And be sure to share with a friend or colleague if you enjoy them because:
– They’ll throw darts;
– You’ll score a bullseye;
– And I’ll roller-skate.
Brilliant Idea #2
You’re clearly full of insights and ideas as a reader of these Housing Notes. Please share them with me early and often. I appreciate every email I receive, as it helps me craft the following week’s Housing Note.
See you next week!
Reads, Listens and Visuals I Enjoyed
- Short-Term Rentals in Co-ops and Condos Plunge as New Law Kicks In [Habitat Magazine]
- Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-November [Calculated Risk]
- Brokers Talk Headline Pricing [The Real Deal]
- Home Buyers and Sellers Rarely Meet. What Happens When They Hit It Off? [Wall Street Journal]
- Inventory will Tell the Tale [Calculated Risk]
- A California town wiped off the map by wildfire is still recovering 5 years on [NPR]
- My brother’s friend has been squatting at my former apartment and won’t leave now that the lease is up. Am I liable? [Brick Underground]
- Homebuyers file mother of all commission suits in Illinois [Inman]
- Growing Gotham: Realities, Risks, and Remedies to NYC's Population Loss [CBC NY]
- Southern California has 33 of priciest US ZIPs for homes [OC Register]
- Sitzer | Burnett plaintiffs' attorneys in talks with DOJ [Inman]
- Where new homes were built in D.C. over the last 20 years [Axios]
- Turning Empty Offices Into Apartments Is Getting Even Harder [Wall Street Journal]
- Where the mayor’s housing plan could have the most impact [Crain's New York]
- PODCAST: MSCI Chief Economist Jim Costello On How Much Distress Is Coming For CRE [Bisnow]
- Google Abandons Massive Project That Would Have Built 15,000 Homes in San Francisco Area [Gizmodo]
My New Content, Research and Mentions
- Bob Vila, America’s Favorite Handyman, Asks $52.9 Million For Waterfront Florida Home [Mansion Global]
- The $60 Million Penthouse Issue [Highest & Best]
- Your piece of the pie [FOUND: NY]
- WSJ News Exclusive | Bob Vila, America’s Favorite Handyman, Asks $52.9 Million For Waterfront Florida Home [Wall Street Journal]
- Manhattan Rents Have Peaked as Prices Dipped in October [Mansion Global]
- New York City Apartment Rents Drop Again Following Historic Highs [Bisnow]
- Hillary Weighs In: The Bloomberg Open, Americas Edition [Bloomberg]
- The Daily Dirt: Taking the Condo Market’s Temperature [The Real Deal]
- NYC Apartment Rents Fall While Lease Signings Spike in October [Commercial Observer]
- New York Rent Prices Decline for Two Months Straight [The Real Deal]
- NYC rents trending down from record highs this summer [New York Daily News]
- Rents keep falling but remain historically high [Crain's New York]
- New York City rents retreat from record highs as market starts to cool [Business Times]
- WSJ News Exclusive | As Billionaires Move to Miami, Developers Roll the Dice With High-Priced Listings [Wall Street Journal]
- NYC Rents Retreat From Record Highs as Market Starts to Cool [Bloomberg]
- NYC rents trending down from record highs this summer [NY Daily News]
- Outcome of Trump’s fraud trial could have ‘seismic’ impact on his business [WSILTV]
- Goya Foods Heir Lists Palm Beach Estate for $36.5 Million [Mansion Global]
- Trump's wealth has jumped $500 million since he left the White House [Crain's New York]
- Trump’s wealth has jumped US$500 million since he left the White House [Business Times]
- Trump's wealth jumped $677 million since leaving the White House [The Straits Times]
- Outcome of Trump’s fraud trial could have ‘seismic’ impact on his business [CNN Business]
- Is bad news for real estate agents good news for designers? [Business of Home]
- Is bad news for realtors good news for designers? [MSN]
- Is bad news for real estate agents good news for designers? [Yahoo]
- Trump's Wealth Has Jumped $500 Million Since He Left the White House [Bloomberg]
Recently Published Elliman Market Reports
- Elliman Report: Manhattan, Brooklyn & Queens Rentals 10-2023 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: California New Signed Contracts 10-2023 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Florida New Signed Contracts 10-2023 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: New York New Signed Contracts 10-2023 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: San Diego County Sales 3Q 2023 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Orange County Sales 3Q 2023 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Los Angeles Sales 3Q 2023 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: North Fork Sales 3Q 2023 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Hamptons Sales 3Q 2023 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Long Island Sales 3Q 2023 [Miller Samuel]
Appraisal Related Reads
- The housing market during a presidential election year [Sacramento Appraisal Blog]
- Bill outlawing home appraisal bias passes in Prince George's County [WUSA 9]
- Podcast: Voice of Appraisal E262 Tips, Junk and NAR Troubles"! Jonathan Miller joins the show!!! PART 2 [Voice of Appraisal]
- Appraisal Frights: 13 Terrifying Property Pitfalls That'll Haunt Your Home's Value [Birmingham Appraisal Blog]
Extra Curricular Reads
- Man on Led Zeppelin IV Cover Identified 52 Years After Album’s Release [Pitchfork]
- Opinion | Space junk is out of control. Here’s why — and what to do about it. [Washington Post]
- NYC Manhole Covers: History and How They're Made [Untapped New York]
- How the New York of Robert Moses shaped my father’s health [Aeon Essays]