- National New Listing Inventory Has Returned To Normal Levels
- New Listings Are A Better Test For Current Conditions Than Total Inventory
- Palm Beach County Florida Continues To See Inadequate Supply
New listing inventory is helpful in telling what is currently entering the market. Most reported inventory tends to be cumulative, which is the total of everything on the market, no matter how long it has been. I measure this against newly signed contracts every month in New York and Florida. H/T to my friend Barry, whose new book is a great read (and for some reason, he keeps telling me what NOT to do), and he shared the following tweet with me. The point is that the new listing inventory is now back “within a seasonal range.”
Definition Of A New Listing
My definition for a new listing is one that came on the month that is being reported. So, in the case of our April reports, the counted listings came on during April. In an example of cumulative listings or total listings, a February listing that hasn’t sold yet still shows up in the total count.
Manhattan New Listings Just Above The Norm
The 2025 new listing trajectory is just above the 2019 level (began tracking in May 2019). Manhattan never saw the sharp drop in supply that much of the country did, mainly because the market boomed about 9 months after everyone else in early 2021. The take on supply is that listings are consistent, if not nominally, higher than the normal range. Aside from 2020’s pandemic trend, new listing growth peaks now and then sells off before bottoming in August.
Palm Beach County New Listings Still Below Normal
Palm Beach County has shown a consistently low level of supply since the pandemic began. The 2019 trend of new inventory is closer to normal levels, so the more recent years reflect a more limited supply. The latest listing growth for 2025 is settling below what 2019 levels would have likely been (I began tracking in May 2019).
Final Thoughts
It’s interesting how much misinformation there is out there about the listing inventory story. Too many memories of the financial crisis have shaped our ability to process housing data. Each market is different, and there is not a national housing market. Please continue to rely on critical thinking on your housing market takes.
The Actual Final Thought – Consumers are unbelievably awful at understanding the world around them.
Here’s My Podcast: What It Means
The latest episode (6) (and episode 5)is a click away as well as the podcast feeds for all the “What It Means with Jonathan Miller (WIM).”
Apple (within the Douglas Elliman feed) Soundcloud Youtube
Podcast Series That Capture My Attention
I listen to a lot of podcasts. So I thought I’d try sharing what I listen to every Wednesday or as close to the middle of the week as I can get. Many recommendations have nothing to do with the economy or the housing market but hint at how to research or break down complex problems.
- This is a tech news service owned by journalists that breaks down amazing stories.
- Long and deeply researched interviews ranging from tech to history. It’s high density content that grows on you. I stumbled into this after hearing it mentioned on many other podcasts.
Monday Mailboxes, Etc. – Sharing reader feedback on Housing Notes.
May 27, 2025: The Stanhope: Ground Leases Are Often Misunderstood
- Thanks for the memory!
May 22, 2025: The Removal Of Appraisal Institute Executive Is Only Decorative
- …that is why I am a member of the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors. They are straight up with NO exceptions.
- It is like a super sucky family, and all you have to say is it is the only family I got.
- That seems to me what the AI is in my head.
- I am a co-founder of [Redacted] AMC and know many leaders of other AMCs and I can honestly say that I don’t know a single AMC where their model is to take a majority of the appraisal fee….
- It’s worse than that. I saw some applauding the AI response. Really? The guy cost them $400K and beyond and they continued to protect them until they yielded to public outcry?
- I subscribe to the Housing Notes newsletter for its data, analyses, and market perspectives. I don’t subscribe to the Housing Notes newsletter to continuously see your obsession with the Appraisal Institute…
For this last reader noted above, I needed to share my response to them with Housing Notes below. I didn’t share all of what was said to me to protect their identity – I do appreciate readers sending me what they actually feel, especially on topics they are sensitive about:
–I appreciate the feedback. I’m sorry you’re uncomfortable with my occasional forays into our profession. I’m well-informed and deeply sourced, with a reminder that it’s easy to unsubscribe. However, I’d rather you keep reading and sharing your views, but I don’t want to be annoying to you. My criticism isn’t personal of AI, and it isn’t an obsession, which I find derogatory. Hundreds of members have shared their opinions and documents with me privately over the years from all over the country, including leaders of regions, chapters, and even the AI Board of Directors. They all expressed relief that someone was finally speaking out since they weren’t allowed to, and that’s the definition of toxic. I have no patience for those who are afraid to speak their minds and want to silence others.
One of the reasons AI is in this situation is that many members espouse the mantra of remaining quiet and avoiding trouble, which is what you are suggesting I do. And for years, the threat of losing a designation has been how AI has kept membership in line, which I’ve long chronicled. Little information is shared with the membership, and the residential side has been overlooked and demeaned. Clearly, you’ve been involved with many other organizations, which is commendable. Leaders in other similarly sized organizations have reached out to me to provide accolades for what I am doing. You are wildly misinformed if you think this is about denigrating organizations and being unprofessional.
The reference to AI as a “professional, not a trade organization” is a tell I’ve often heard from AI members focused on advancing up the AI organizational ladder. It’s a predictable part of the dialogue that you’ve probably repeated many times in your career. With the devaluation of the designations, the argument for a professional organization label is even weaker now.
Critical thinking is a strength, not a weakness. If an organization can’t stand up to criticism, then there is something wrong. There is ample tangible evidence that something is amiss in leadership. The organization, as currently structured, does not allow new young members to contribute new ideas – it hasn’t done so for the two decades I’ve been watching AI. Some talented individuals are emerging in the ranks of AI, but not soon enough to bail out the institution. That’s the tragedy of this once great organization. Its current trajectory is not sustainable.
Thanks again for sharing you’re thoughts and please keep them coming.
– Jonathan
Did you miss the previous Housing Notes?
Housing Notes Reads
- NAR considers Code of Ethics changes on speech [Inman]
- 🥳 Get the Parting Started [Highest & Best]
- Housing Slowing Down [Apollo Academy]
- Rising Costs a Concern for Land-Lease Building Owners [NYT Archive]
- The Negative Impact of Tariffs on Earnings [Apollo Academy]
![[Podcast] Episode 4: What It Means With Jonathan Miller](https://millersamuel.com/files/2025/04/WhatItMeans.jpeg)