The Housing Market Is Spiraling Downward With Dogged Determination

June 9, 2022

But I digress…

Manhattan Median Rent Reaches $4K Threshold, Setting All-Time High

I’ve been the author of an expanding series of market reports for Douglas Elliman Real Estate since 1994. This week they published our research on the rental market of New York City.

Bloomberg created some great charts on the results in their piece: Manhattan Apartments Hit $4,000 Median — and It’s Going to Get Worse

And here’s a couple of extra charts:

Elliman Report: May 2022 Manhattan, Brooklyn & Queens Rentals

______________________________________________________
MANHATTAN RENTAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

“Median rent reached the $4,000 threshold for the first time as lease signings continue to rise.”

– Median rent reached the $4,000 threshold for the first time as average rent was just short of $5,000
– New leases expanded year over year for the third straight month
– The vacancy rate remained under two percent for the sixth consecutive month
– Doorman’s net effective median rent reached a new high for the fifth consecutive month
– Non-doorman net effective median rent and median rent rose to records for the second straight month
– Luxury price trend indicators all rose to the second-highest on record
– Luxury market share of one-year leases rose to a new high, exceeding half of all new leases
– Luxury net effective median rent rose annually for the thirteen consecutive month

______________________________________________________
BROOKLYN RENTAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

“Net effective median rent reached a new high as landlord concession market share fell to a five year low.”

– Net effective median rent rose to a new high as landlord concession market share fell to its lowest level since 2017
– Landlord concession market share fell to its second-lowest level in four and a half years
– Bidding war market share was nearly one in four new leases for the second straight month

______________________________________________________
QUEENS RENTAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

[Northwest Region] “Net effective median rent rose to the second-highest on a record high as landlord concession market share fell to a six-year low.”

– Net effective median rent reached its second-highest level on record
– Landlord concession market share fell to its lowest level since 2016
– New leases fell annually for the second straight month after twelve months of gains

Charted: Peak Manhattan Leasing And Inventory

New lease signings peak in August…

While listing inventory sees a December spike…

Bloomberg Citylab Visualization: More People Are Moving to Manhattan Than Before the Pandemic

A few weeks ago I got into a discussion with a smart economist on Twitter that didn’t agree with my point that Census data was lagging significantly and didn’t capture the recent migration and was therefore telling an incomplete story. Then I am shared this fascinating visualization by Bloomberg Citylab: More People Are Moving to Manhattan Than Before the Pandemic

CLOSED! PODCAST Jonathan Miller: Forecasting the NYC Housing Market

I had a great conversation with Lee Bergstein and Cooper Knowlton of real estate law firm Bergstein Flynn & Knowlton PLLC


Stop The Stereotypes, NYC Is Safer Than Small-Town America

I love this Justin Fox piece at Bloomberg Opinion: New York City Is a Lot Safer Than Small-Town America.

…the city’s homicide rate in 2021 still less than a fifth what it was in 1990…there’s a growing gap between New York City and most of the rest of urban America.

And he’s got the receipts charts (here are a few of them):

Alternative Inflation Indicators

Quartz has a good podcast episode Inflation: The price isn’t right.

And then this logic…

And this old thread on Mountain Lion Economies

Yet at this point, with so much inflation data coming our way, we might consider alternative information:

Inflation is so bad that Snoop Dogg just gave his full-time blunt roller a raise [Los Angeles Times]

PLANET MONEY PODCAST Home prices could fall, but is it a bubble?

A Housing Market Conversation Repeated Every Day

Getting Graphic

My favorite charts of the week made by others

Appraiserville

To all my hard working appraiser colleagues – you get a break from Appraiserville this week. I’ve get several things lined up but was overwhelmed by the viral press coverage of our NYC rental report this week (see above).

OFT (One Final Thought)

A contrarian survey…

Brilliant Idea #1

If you need something rock solid in your life (particularly on Friday afternoons) and someone forwarded this to you, or you think you already subscribed, sign up here for these weekly Housing Notes. And be sure to share with a friend or colleague if you enjoy them because:

– They’ll be more dogged;
– You’ll let them slide;
– And I’ll wait for the next Fed move.

Brilliant Idea #2

You’re obviously full of insights and ideas as a reader of Housing Notes. I appreciate every email I receive and it helps me craft the next week’s Housing Note.

See you next week.

Jonathan J. Miller, CRP, CRE, Member of RAC
President/CEO
Miller Samuel Inc.
Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants
Matrix Blog
@jonathanmiller

Reads, Listens and Visuals I Enjoyed

My New Content, Research and Mentions

Recently Published Elliman Market Reports

Appraisal Related Reads

Extra Curricular Reads