Grooving On Bass As Our Housing Speakers Blow Up

July 24, 2020

My market reports have “matrix” tables and my blog is called “Matrix” and the former Curbed SF once proclaimed: “Jonathan Miller’s blog Matrix. Completely Keanu Reeves-free real estate economics, not for beginners.”

So with that, groove now to his bass lines.

But I digress…

Hamptons housing showed an intensity it lacked for the past three years

This week Douglas Elliman posted a lot of my firm’s research in the final week of the 4-week second quarter gauntlet. I’ve been chronicling housing markets through an expanding Elliman Report Series for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

The record price trend was well-chronicled in this essential Bloomberg chart:

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HAMPTONS HIGHLIGHTS

New Yorkers Tend To Obsess About The State of The Hamptons (in no particular order)

– Escape From New York Pushes Hamptons Home Prices to 13-Year High [Bloomberg] – Home prices in the Hamptons hit record as wealthy New Yorkers flee to the beach [CNBC] – Hamptons Home Prices Break Record as New Yorkers Flee City [WSJ] – Hamptons home prices skyrocket due to demand from NYC coronavirus fleers [NY Post] – Exodus From City Pushes Hamptons Home Prices 13 Year High [Crains NY] – As New Yorkers flee city, Hamptons median home price soars past $1M [Inman] Single-Family Home Prices Soared in the Hamptons in the Second Quarter [Mansion Global]

Elliman Report: Q2-2020 Hamptons Sales

“Despite the COVID-19 shutdown, the decline in sales was more modest than much of the region.”

– Highest median sales price recorded in more than eight years of tracking
– Listing inventory fell year over year for the third straight quarter
– Number of sales declined annually for the first time in three quarters
– Lowest second quarter sales total in eleven years

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NORTH FORK HIGHLIGHTS

Demand from NYC buyers cushioned falling sales on East End and Long Island [Brick Underground]

Elliman Report: Q2-2020 North Fork Sales

“After a robust first quarter, the COVID-19 market shutdown during much of the second quarter caused sales to see substantial declines.”

– The number of sales declined annual at the highest rate in six quarters
– The lowest second-quarter number of sales in eight years as the market shutdown
– The most substantial rate of annual decline of listing inventory in at least thirteen years of tracking
– Median sales price declined year over year for the first time in three quarters

When Half A Garage Is Not Better Than One

When in Maine…


[click image to read article]

Long Island Continues To Be The Suburb That Won’t Quit

After the financial crisis, the housing market in Nassau and Suffolk Counties excluding the East End markets of Hamptons and North Fork, have shown steady price growth and sales growth. Inventory remains limited as discussed in this Newsday article:

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LONG ISLAND HIGHLIGHTS

Home prices rise on LI as buyers compete for scarce supply, report shows [Newsday]

Elliman Report: Q2-2020 Long Island Sales

“Despite the large decline in sales due to the COVID-19 shutdown, many price records were set during the quarter.”

– Median sales price tied the record set in the third quarter of 2019
– The number of sales fell at the largest annual rate in seventeen years of tracking
– Listing inventory declined year over year at the largest rate in sixteen years of tracking
– Condo median sales price slipped from the prior-year quarter for the first time in twenty-three quarters
– Single family median sales price tied the record set in the third quarter of 2019
– Luxury listing inventory declined at the largest rate in more than seven years

Mortgage Rates Straddle 3% As Stimulus Payments Come To An End

After exploring the world below 3% last week, rates were up slightly but still straddle the 3% demarcation line. Remember that rates are falling because the economy is weakening.

One of the biggest reasons is the combination of the second wave of the virus and that stimulus money in the form of enhanced unemployment benefits stops flowing to consumers after July 31 with no apparent replacement in sight.

As a result, the rental market is expected to see additional weakness – very soon.

This survey is nearly 3 weeks old and yet…:

“As of the end of the month, we’re screwed,” she said. “There’s just no two ways about it.”

And some thoughts on a potential foreclosure crisis unless Congress acts.

LA Was Caught In The Covid-19 Pandemic And Then Released

While the West Side and Downtown markets of LA cooled during the second quarter lockdown and made a strong comeback afterward, that progress is all in question again after a strong second wave has hit the market.

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GREATER LOS ANGELES INCLUDING WESTSIDE AND DOWNTOWN SALES HIGHLIGHTS

Elliman Report: Q2-2020 Los Angeles

“After a robust first quarter, the COVID-19 market shutdown during much of the second quarter caused sales to see substantial declines.”

– Median sales price edged higher year over year to the third-highest on record
– Average sales price, average price per square foot and average sales size set new records
– The lowest number of second-quarter sales in eleven years after the market shutdown
– All single family price trend indicators reached new records this quarter
– The lowest number of second-quarter single family sales in eleven years
– The largest rate of annual condo sales decline in more than twelve years
– Luxury median and average sales price for single family sales set new records

LA SUBMARKETS

MALIBU/MALIBU BEACH

Elliman Report: Q2-2020 Malibu/Malibu Beach

“Despite the COVID-19 shutdown, the decline in sales was more modest than much of the region.”

VENICE/MAR VISTA

Elliman Report: Q2-2020 Venice/Mar Vista

“After a robust first quarter, the COVID-19 market shutdown during much of the second quarter caused sales to see substantial declines.”

Houston, We Have A Solution – A New Houston Market Report Is Born

Douglas Elliman published our first Houston quarterly report this week as it officially became a part of the quarterly Elliman Report Series. As Douglas Elliman expands into Texas, so will this series.

Much like nearly all the markets we cover, year over year Houston sales fell as the market was shut down. The real concern is how the impact of the second wave of COVID is going to impact its recovery.

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HOUSTON SALES HIGHLIGHTS

– Pent-up demand followed plunge in Houston home sales [Houston Chronicle] – Houston’s housing market stumbled after Covid-19. But it’s better off than many major cities, report says [Houston Business Journal]

Elliman Report: Q2-2020 Houston Sales

“After a robust first quarter, the COVID-19 market shutdown caused sales and listing inventory to decline. This is what a spring housing market looks like when it is shut down to fight a global pandemic.”

– Due to the market shutdown both single family and condo sales saw the largest year over year decline in more than a decade
– Overall median sales price trends showed stability for single families and modest gains for condos despite the pause in the market
– Listing inventory declined year over year as would-be sellers delayed placing their homes on the market

Appraiserville

(For earlier appraisal industry commentary, visit my old clunky REIC site.)

The Previous Victim Of The Appraisal Institute Sham Election Maneuver Shares What Happened

Here’s a shoutout to Jim Amorin and Leslie Sellers as you are reading this right now – – here’s a refresher on Appraisal Institute history…

Like Craig Steinley, the 2007 victim of the unethical petition process I’ve covered over the previous two weeks, Anne L. Johnson was selected by the nominating committee to be Vice President after being vetted against a number of candidates. This sham petition process was implemented to get Leslie Sellers (he voted for himself after not making the cut with the nominating committee) on track to later become President and then led AI to exit TAF without a legitimate explanation – it caused me to quit and accelerated the deterioration of the once-great organization, essentially screwing its own membership by fostering its growing irrelevance.

To be clear, I want the Appraisal Institute to either thrive or get out of the way of the appraisal industry. This corrupt behavior is going to continue and the operations executives will keep overruling the voice of the membership, so that leadership can keep enjoying high pay and expensive perks, inappropriate to an organization that has lost a third of its membership over the decade, a steeper decline than credentialed U.S. appraisers. There is one thing they are doing now that should be good for appraisers – more on that next week. But any good continues to be overshadowed by current behavior that is corrosive to organizational credibility.

Unless this petition process is removed from the bylaws, the deterioration in credibility will continue.

To current Board Members, please pick one:

Are you:

A. simply sheep that sit on the board to pad your resume and remain afraid to make any move that gets the operational executives mad? or
B. an industry leader who knows right from wrong and can see the corruption right in front of you and are willing to do something about it to rebuild long-term organization integrity?

But I digress again…

Anne L. Johnson lays the situation out in her July 21, 2020 note that was sent in support of Craig Steinley, the current (only legitimate) nominating committee choice. I’m sure all board members are aware of this dark moment in Appraisal Institute history more than a decade ago and now is the time to start asking questions and demonstrate integrity. Fingers crossed.


____________________________________________

So I’ve made my case. Now here is how members of the Appraisal Institute can take action NOW.

A plan of action has been laid out professionally by the North Texas Chapter and is not being critical of the Board of Directors.

Clicking on the image will take you to the CALL TO ACTION web site.


[click on image to go to the CALL TO ACTION link]

OFT (One Final Thought)

Sometimes you have to try something new…

Brilliant Idea #1

If you need something rock solid in your life (particularly on Friday afternoons) and someone forwarded this to you, or you think you already subscribed, sign up here for these weekly Housing Notes. And be sure to share with a friend or colleague if you enjoy them because:

– They’ll groove more;
– You’ll groove more;
– And I’ll dust off my guitar.

Brilliant Idea #2

You’re obviously full of insights and ideas as a reader of Housing Notes. I appreciate every email I receive and it helps me craft the next week’s Housing Note.

See you next week.

Jonathan J. Miller, CRP, CRE, Member of RAC
President/CEO
Miller Samuel Inc.
Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants
Matrix Blog
@jonathanmiller

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