There Is No Housing Sympathy For the Devil

July 16, 2021

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Housing market conditions across the U.S. are relatively consistent: Booming without the aid of mortgage lender moral flexibility. Sales are rising, prices are rising and inventory is falling, and in most cases, all metrics are approaching or have set records.

Lenders have no sympathy for those home buyers that can not qualify as underwriting standards remain tight. And buyers are having a devil of a time finding homes to purchase. (see what I did there?)

The video quality of a circa 1968 take on the early creative moments of Sympathy for the Devil to get to the final version is astounding.

I wanted to give a shoutout to my Columbia grad students who endured four hours of my lectures this week and asked some really sharp questions. My students don’t ever need to focus on the “Appraiserville” section at the bottom of these Housing Notes.

But I digress…

Fairfield County, CT Sees 50% Of Sales With Bidding Wars

I’ve been the author of the expanding Douglas Elliman market report series since 1994. I’ve not seen the intensity of NYC suburban markets like I have now. Our Fairfield research was released yesterday and showed 50% of all Q2 closings were sold above ask.

The Bloomberg coverage of our research was the fourth most read by the 350K Bloomberg Terminal subscribers yesterday.

and a chart!

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FAIRFIELD COUNTY SALES HIGHLIGHTS

“All price trend indicators set new records as second-quarter sales rose its highest level since 2005.”

– Half of all the sales that closed in the quarter went to bidding wars
– All price trend indicators for the county reached new records
– Listing inventory fell sharply to the third-lowest level on record
– Marketing time and listing discount fell to their lowest levels on record
– The pace of the market moved at its second fastest on record
– Luxury housing market prices surged to new highs
– Listing inventory fell to its lowest level on record

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GREENWICH SALES HIGHLIGHTS

“A record one out of four sales closed above the asking price as sales nearly doubled from last year.”

– Single family sales reached a new high as listing inventory fell sharply
– The single family market pace was the fastest moving on record
– Condo sales essentially, doubled year over year for the fourth straight quarter
– Luxury listing inventory fell to a record low after nine consecutive annual declines
– All luxury price indicators rose annually despite a modest decline in average sales size

South Florida Has Nothing To Sell

Of course, I’m exaggerating but it feels like. In a remarkable turnaround, inventory levels have come way down, especially at the high-end.

There was some great coverage on the state of the Florida housing market across our thirteen reports – see the links down at the bottom of this newsletter.

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BOCA RATON / HIGHLAND BEACH HIGHLIGHTS

“The brisk market conditions continued into the new year with record highs for pricing and sales but with chronically low listing inventory.”

– Condo price trend indicators and the number of sales surged to new records
– Single family price trend indicators jumped to new records as the number of sales rose sharply
– Luxury condo price trend indicators surged annually to reach new records for the second straight quarter

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CORAL GABLES HIGHLIGHTS

“The overall market moved at a record pace with an elevated market share of bidding wars.”

– Single family median and average sales price, as well as the number of sales, rose to new highs
– Condo listing inventory declined to a new low as the number of sales jumped to a new high
– Luxury single family and condo listing inventory fell sharply year over year

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DELRAY BEACH HIGHLIGHTS

“The market continued to see record and near-record highs for prices and sales volume, as well as record lows for listing inventory and marketing times.”

– Single family price trend indicators and sales jumped to new records
– Condo listing inventory fell dropped to a new low as price trend indicators showed mixed results
– Luxury single family listing inventory fell to the lowest on record for the second straight quarter

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FORT LAUDERDALE HIGHLIGHTS

“The market continued to see record highs for prices and sales volume, as well as record lows for listing inventory.”

– Condo listing inventory fell sharply as the number of sales rose to a new record
– Single family price trend indicators, as well as the number of sales, rose to new highs
– Luxury single family price trend indicators jumped year over year to new records

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JUPITER / PALM BEACH GARDENS HIGHLIGHTS

“The market continued to see record highs for prices along with sharply falling supply.”

JUPITER
– Single family price trend indicators and the number of sales surged year over year
– Condo price trend indicators jumped annually as listing inventory fell to a record low

PALM BEACH GARDENS
– Single family price trend indicators and the number of sales rose to a new record
– Condo price trend indicators increased annually as listing inventory fell to a new low

____________________________________________________________________________
MANALAPAN HIGHLIGHTS

“The market continued to see significant year over year gains for sales and price trend indicators and new lows for listing inventory.”

MANALAPAN, HYPOLUXO ISLAND & OCEAN RIDGE
– Single listing sales surged year over year for the fourth straight quarter
– Single family listing inventory fell to a new low for the second consecutive quarter
– Ocean Ridge condo sales and price trend indicators surged year over year

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MIAMI BEACH/BARRIER ISLANDS HIGHLIGHTS

“Condo sales quintupled year over year as the market moved at its fastest pace in more than eight years.”

– Condo price trend indicators rose sharply to new records for the second consecutive quarter
– Single family average price per square foot rose to a new record for the fourth consecutive quarter
– Luxury condo months of supply plunged over the past year as all price trend indicators set new records

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MIAMI COASTAL MAINLAND HIGHLIGHTS

“All single family price trend indicators reached new records in each of the past five quarters.”

– Condo sales more than tripled year over year to a new record as listing inventory fell sharply over the same period
– Single family months of supply fell to record or near-record lows over the past four quarters
– Luxury condo purchasers relied on cash more than any other quarter in the past five years

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PALM BEACH HIGHLIGHTS

“The market continued to see record highs for prices and sales volume, as well as record lows for listing inventory.”

– Condo sales nearly quadrupled year over year to the highest level on record
– Single family price trend indicators surged to set new records
– Luxury listing inventory tied the record low set in the same period last year

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ST. PETERSBURG HIGHLIGHTS

“The market continued to see large annual gains in prices and sales volume, as well as significant declines in listing inventory.”

– Single family price trend indicators surged to set new records
– Condo sales surged year over year as listing inventory fell to a record low
– Luxury condo listing inventory fell to the lowest tracked in at least three years

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TAMPA HIGHLIGHTS

“Price and sales gains continued to define this region’s housing market.”

SOUTH TAMPA
– Condo sales nearly doubled as listing inventory declined to a record low for the second straight quarter
– Luxury listing inventory fell to a record low as all price trend indicators surged to record highs

GREATER DOWNTOWN TAMPA
– Overall price trend indicators for the region continued to rise sharply from year-ago levels
– Regional sales surged annually for the fourth straight quarter as listing inventory fell sharply

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WELLINGTON HIGHLIGHTS

“The housing market continued to see record highs for prices as well as record lows for listing inventory.”

– Condo median sales price rose to a new record for the second straight month
– Single family price trend indicators and sales jumped to new records
– Luxury single family price trend indicators rose to record highs

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WEST PALM BEACH HIGHLIGHTS

“The market continued to see large annual gains in prices and sales volume, as well as record lows for listing inventory.”

– Condo sales nearly doubled year over year as listing inventory fell sharply
– Single family price trend indicators surged to set new records
– Luxury single family price trend indicators reached new records for the second straight quarter

Yahoo TV Interview On The Housing Market

On Thursday I joined Yahoo TV’s Alexis Christoforous for a discussion on the U.S. housing market. It’s always fun to speak with her.


[click on image to play video]

New York Fed: NYC Metro Views Business Climate Since Pandemic Better Than Normal

Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s July 2021 Business Leaders Survey:


[click image for report]

The survey’s headline business activity index came in at 41.7, little changed from last month’s record high. The business climate index rose six points to 6.5, indicating that for the first time since the pandemic
began, firms generally viewed the business climate as better than normal for this time
of year. Employment levels and wages continued to rise at a solid clip. Both the prices
paid and prices

Bloomberg Radio’s Surveillance Talks Housing With Jonathan Miller

I joined Bloomberg Radio/TV this morning for a quick conversation about the state of inventory, especially in NYC-Metro and Florida (at the 16 min mark). I didn’t get the TV clip yet, but you’ll only see the inside of my Detroit hotel room. Host Lisa Abramowicz gives me the nicest introduction I could ever ask for.

The Compound & Friends Podcast: The Suburban Housing Boom is Only Getting Started (with Logan Mohtashami)

A great conversation on the housing market here in a macro context.

Miami-Dade County Buildings by Year Built

In the context of the Surfside condo collapse that has dominated the news in recent weeks, our team at Miller Samuel crunched the data to arrive at a break out by year built for condos in Miami-Dade County and a GPS placement of the buildings.

This was similar to the results found in this recent Wall Street Journal piece along with their graphic.

Thread: Top 10 Housing Charts From John Burns Consulting

Fantastic NYC Townhouse Illustrations

Wonder City Studios has terrific illustrations. Click to expand this NYC townhouse version to its full glory.

Getting Graphic

Len Kiefer‘s Chart Handiwork

Appraiserville

(For earlier appraisal industry commentary, visit my old clunky REIC site.)

Heather & Claire Have Terrific Grasp Of Regional Hypocrisy In The Sham Petition Process

As I finish up these Housing Notes, reflecting on the fact that I am sitting here on vacation and my wife is asking me to join in the fun. So I am frustrated that I don’t have enough time to do this post justice today before the deadline, so look for a full breakout on how the NNC works within the sham petition process and how that compares to the actions of FOJs in Region V. Plus I give well-deserved shoutouts to Jim Amorin and Trevor Hubbard as well. After I finish the post on Sunday, I will also post the link here.

The TAF 2020 Financials Aren’t Something To Be Proud Of For A Not-For-Profit

Before I get started, when is the Internal Revenue Service Going To Start Looking At The Appraisal Foundation? I mean, seriously.

TAF 2020 Financial Statement

The Appraisal Foundation’s 2020 Looked Like This:

– They are a not-for-profit but have amassed $11M in reserve?
– Amassing $2.3 million in profit but requested and received PPP money only returned it when publicly shamed?
– Saving all kinds of money this year for not going on junkets to Palm Springs and Dubai?
– Their Chairman of the Appraisal Standards Board (ASB) resigned without warning, and yet this technical board is going “full speed ahead” run by ONLY two real property appraisers but with 4 non-real property appraisers?
– The AO16 draft is under review and has been extensively rewritten by amateurs yet doesn’t use the terminology of the Americans With Disabilities Act and, as usual, has not been reviewed by legal counsel*?

* All USPAP changes are not reviewed by legal counsel, yet USPAP gets baked into the laws of the 55 territories and states? Presumably, this is done to save money. This is wildly irresponsible allowing things like the Ethics rule to be poorly written, seemingly giving appraisers leeway to use “valid?” racial data to make race adjustments in their appraisals (crazy, right?)

Here’s their self-congratulatory video, which literally doesn’t share any real change to diversity, just bureaucratic change to keep the money grab from appraisers going.

And of course, lets not forget their bat-shit crazy letter.

OFT (One Final Thought)

Actually, it’s the sound of illegal bitcoin mining equipment in China.

Brilliant Idea #1

If you need something rock solid in your life (particularly on Friday afternoons) and someone forwarded this to you, or you think you already subscribed, sign up here for these weekly Housing Notes. And be sure to share with a friend or colleague if you enjoy them because:

– They’ll be more devilish;
– You’ll have more sympathy;
– And I’ll gather no moss (a rolling stone).

Brilliant Idea #2

You’re obviously full of insights and ideas as a reader of Housing Notes. I appreciate every email I receive and it helps me craft the next week’s Housing Note.

See you next week.

Jonathan J. Miller, CRP, CRE, Member of RAC
President/CEO
Miller Samuel Inc.
Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants
Matrix Blog
@jonathanmiller

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