Don't Count On Housing Not Hitting The Open Man On The Give And Go

February 4, 2022

Don’t Count On Housing Not Hitting The Open Man On The Give And Go

If you need a reminder to never give up on something you really want to achieve, this will help or if you just like screaming and yelling, this will help too. Wait for it…

But I digress…

The Manhattan Decade Report Is Out And Is All About The Shift In The Mix

I’ve been the author of an expanding report series for Douglas Elliman since 1994. Our first “decade report” – a ten-year moving window – was created in 2000. The cover featured the World Trade Center, sadly.

When this study was released more than two decades ago, I used to nickname it “The Phonebook” because it was nearly 60 pages in size. I can’t call it that anymore because my four sons (3 millennials and a Gen-Z) don’t even know what a phone book is..so I simply call it by its proper name, “The Manhattan Decade Report.”

And by the way, this Fisher Investments notes on The State of Real Estate, Why housing probably won’t collapse—or soar a whole lot more. is quite consistent with the way I am currently thinking about the housing market.

But I digress…

The new Manhattan Decade report is out and provides a ten-year moving window on the Manhattan co-op and condo markets. So is the Manhattan Townhouse Report that covers the same decade.

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MANHATTAN DECADE HIGHLIGHTS [2012-2021] (Co-ops & Condos)

Elliman Report: 2012-2021 Manhattan Decade Report

“Sales more than doubled year over year as the housing market was the last in the region to boom.”

– Median sales price rose to the second-highest in thirty-two years of tracking
– Listing inventory fell sharply year over year but was consistent with the two-decade average
– The number of sales for 2021 soared above the prior year to the highest-level record in thirty-two years of tracking
– The market was moving at its fastest pace since 2015 due to surging sales and falling listing inventory
– Over the decade, the number of 4+ bedrooms sales rose at twice the rate or higher of any other size category
– Since 2012, the median sales price rose the highest of all size categories
– Low mortgage rates and strong economic conditions for homebuyers fueled unusually heavy demand

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MANHATTAN TOWNHOUSE HIGHLIGHTS [2012-2021]

“Sales surged from last year’s pandemic lows, overpowering the growth of supply.”

Elliman Report: 2012-2021 Manhattan Townhouse Report

– Months of supply showed the fastest-moving market in twenty-five years
– After falling to a new low last year, listing inventory surged annually at the highest rate on record
– Days on market surged to a new high as heavy demand cleared older listings from the market from the surge in sales
– Single family townhouses more than tripled year over year to their highest total on record
– Average price per square foot of 3-5 families pressed higher year over year as the other size categories slipped
– The single family market share by total dollars rose to its highest share in twenty-two years
– Median sales price over the decade saw significantly larger gains in two-family and 3-5 family markets than for single family
– Luxury price trend indicators pressed higher and remained above pre-pandemic levels
– The number of luxury listings rose annually but remained sharply below pre-pandemic levels
– The average luxury sales size fell from the prior year but remained well above the decade average

[Deconstruct Podcast] The Death of Luxury Comps

I was interviewed on The Real Deal’s new Deconstruct Podcast. It is easy to digest, but is quite an esoteric discussion on values in the super-luxury housing markets. I’ve added this podcast to my personal feed. On a historical note, I was the first person interviewed on The Real Deal’s first podcast years ago after I suggested podcasting as news delivery vehicle to founder Amir Korangy – so he interviewed me in my office for their first one!

The 15 minute discussion is led by host Isabella Farr with input from Hiten Samtani. In other words, “past performance is no guarantee of future (or current) results” and pricing benchmarks barely seem to matter. Its some sort of impulsive buying pattern we can’t get our arms around yet.

Long Island’s Past Decade Has Seen Steady Sales And Price Growth

This week Douglas Elliman published our Long Island Decade research, an aggregation of the past 40 quarters of Long Island annualized.

Long Island’s Newsday went all-in with some cool “Flourish” charts in Long Island home prices surged 60% since 2012.

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LONG ISLAND DECADE HIGHLIGHTS

Elliman Report: 2012-2021 Long Island Decade

“The record number of sales along with the lowest listing inventory on the record created the fastest moving market in at least two decades.”

– The number of sales surged to the highest number on record
– Listing inventory fell to the lowest level tracked since 2002
– Months of supply fell to the fastest pace on record
– Average and median sales prices rose to new highs
– Luxury listing inventory fell to a record low
– Prices and sales rose to record highs in both Nassau and Suffolk Counties

New Signed Contracts Showed Lack Of Supply Continued To Hold Back Sales

During the pandemic lockdown in 2020, Douglas Elliman and I decided to launch a monthly new signed contract report series. The idea was to capture contracts and listings signed during the month, not in aggregate to give us the freshest direction on market activity.

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Elliman Report: January 2022 New York New Signed Contracts

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Elliman Report: January 2022 Florida New Signed Contracts

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Elliman Report: January 2022 Colorado New Signed Contracts

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Elliman Report: January 2022 California New Signed Contracts

Luxury Market Flips Are No Longer Rationale By Pre-Pandemic Standards

We’re Underwhelmed By The Highest Listing In North Dakota

Two Terrific Resources On U.S. Housing Market Trends Talk About Risk

Mike Simonsen of Altos Research and Bill McBride of Calculated Risk are terrific follows on housing market trends. I met both about 15 years ago and have followed them ever since.

Len Kiefer of Freddie Mac Shares His Views Of The Market, And Its Calming

I’m a huge fan of Len Kiefer’s visualization skills (see bottom of these notes) so I thought I’d share his 4Q21 deck I saw on Linkedin.


[click on the chart to see it]

The Manhattan Street Our Midtown Manhattan Office Is On

This is a photo I tripped onto that was taken of West 38th Street in 1908 looking west from Fifth Avenue from the Detroit Publishing Company. My office building was built 9 years later just before the tall tower in the background that was offering annual full-floor office leases for $900 per year. Seems like that was a bit pricey back then?


[click to expand]

And here is the same angle in 2021 on Google Street View:

Blech.

Getting Graphic

My favorite charts of the week made by others

Len Kiefer‘s Chart Handiwork

Appraiserville

(For earlier appraisal industry commentary, visit my old clunky REIC site.)

I took a short break from Appraiserville this week given the slew of market research we pushed out but I’ll be back next week. In the meantime, Ryan Lundquist at Sacramento Appraisal Blog wins the internet today.


[click on link to read his post]

OFT (One Final Thought)

It’s only a two-minute segment but it’s quite fun.

And my absolute favorite tweet of the week that caused me to burst out laughing:

I saw the Facebook’s Meta rebrand as a misdirection attempt as privacy scrutiny was building in Washington and of course, Apple’s deathknell privacy opt-out feature had a 97% acceptance rate – a stunning development.

Brilliant Idea #1

If you need something rock solid in your life (particularly on Friday afternoons) and someone forwarded this to you, or you think you already subscribed, sign up here for these weekly Housing Notes. And be sure to share with a friend or colleague if you enjoy them because:

– They’ll throw a Hail Mary;
– You’ll regret that bathroom break at the very end of the game;
– And I’ll listen to some Country Honk.

Brilliant Idea #2

You’re obviously full of insights and ideas as a reader of Housing Notes. I appreciate every email I receive and it helps me craft the next week’s Housing Note.

See you next week.

Jonathan J. Miller, CRP, CRE, Member of RAC
President/CEO
Miller Samuel Inc.
Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants
Matrix Blog
@jonathanmiller

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