DC Housing Is Not For U.S., By George

  • DC Doesn’t Have Outlandish Political Housing Market Cycles
  • DC Is Experiencing The Shift To Luxury Demand Expected Nationwide
  • There Is An Expectation Of A Wider Wealth Gap In Housing Coming Soon

I must confess that I’m not a native New Yorker, but I feel like one after moving there 40 years ago. My teenage years were spent in Bethesda, Maryland, and one of my parent’s homes was literally on the D.C. Line long before the region became known as the DMV. When I was blogging for Curbed DC about 15 years ago, before the Curbed Network became part of the VOX, CNBC empires, I was consulting for one of the largest MLS systems at the time, MRIS (now known as Bright). I always assumed that with election cycles, there was a massive turnover in DC housing when the White House residents changed parties. I had full access to all the data for the DMV and verified that such excess turnover was either a myth or wildly exaggerated. Here are a couple of charts I created back in the day, and they look like typical housing markets at the time:

WSJ: Trump Sends D.C.’s Luxury-Home Market Into an All-Out Buying Frenzy

I caught this excellent WSJ journal article about the luxury housing boom in DC (free link), which presumably was fueled by the change in administrations. There has clearly been an upswing in high-end sales. However, it’s really an upswing in U.S. luxury housing demand in general rather than something created by political forces in DC as the carpetbaggers try to suck up to new leadership – that happens in every administration.

The numbers indeed show a burst in high-end sales in 2024. However, this jump is also consistent with the jump in high-end sales expectations for 2025, as mortgage rates remain stuck around 7%, cash buyers are expected to rule, and the financial markets should remain robust (for equity drawdowns). These market forces may continue to prime the housing market pump at the high end in the future.

Final Thoughts

What I learned about the DC housing market during my journey roughly 15 years ago is that while there is some election-related macro turnover, it is not that different from other housing markets. Of course, that’s the pattern to date. However, if the new administration closes cabinet-level departments involving federal workers numbered in the hundreds of thousands, there could be a much broader performance difference between the middle class and the luxury housing markets. When I was covering the DC market circa 2010, I was told by a local economist that the number of federal workers has increased every year since WWII. Somehow, I suspect that the employment streak will end, given the stated policies of the current administration, and there is potential for accelerated weakness in non-luxury housing markets as demand for those is pared back.

Regarding the title of this post, growing up in DC Metro, I learned that they wanted to come up with a slogan that was even close to being as popular as the “Virginia is for lovers” version created in 1969. I remember one of the slogans for the DMV that was proposed was “DC Is For U.S. By George.” I loved that one, but sadly, it never caught on.

Source: Virginia.org

Long Island WNBC Clip

Last week, Newsday, the primary newspaper for Long Island, New York, published the results of our 4th quarter housing market report for Long Island. WNBC picked up the story and did a good job of describing the nuances of the Long Island results. I got a bunch of calls from random friends who saw the clip, which is always fun. Click on the image to play the clip.

Monday Mailboxes, Etc. – Sharing reader feedback on Housing Notes.

January 24, 2025: Listing Inventory Performance Is Local, No Matter What Font You Use

  • Hi Jonathan, I have enjoyed reading your Housing Notes over the years.

January 16, 2025: Housing Markets After A Fire Or Congestion Pricing

  • I hope your appraiser contact in CA is able to further investigate the lasting effects of the WOOLSEY fire and continuing conflicts with the two counties and Boeing over the cleanup required!

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