With all the housing market chaos in the past several years with the global pandemic, a pivot in Fed policy, and ransomware attacks on national MLS systems, we can always add more drama, right?
And speaking of drama, today has a shorter Housing Notes than usual since I have to get a flat tire fixed so I can drive to Massachusetts to attend a Pixies concert this weekend.
Did you miss last Friday’s Housing Notes?
August 18, 2023: Housing: Hate To Say I Told You So
But I digress…
Zillow deleted sale at 12:15 pm Friday
Donald J. Trump’s Mar-A-Lago Was Reported As Sold On Zillow For $422,000,000 In August?
I looked at the MLS and the assessor’s office as of 1pm today and there is no record. If true, it would be the biggest sale in U.S. History, but according to this web site (which I have no idea of its accuracy), it wasn’t sold – it was transferred to one of his sons per the web site. Weird.
It appears Donald Trump may have merely transferred the ownership of his Mar-a-Lago estate to his son not long before his arrest, according to online property records.
Sorry for the unverified information, but I felt it was worth noting with the heightened interest in the former president this week and the fact that the sale appears in Zillow. I track U.S. sales ≥ $50 million, and I was initially excited to add another big sale to my list, but no such luck! Here are the 2023 Palm Beach closings ≥ $50 million on my list:
And here are the recorded properties of any type in August as of 1pm today:
UPDATE The Shiny Sheet reported that:
Real estate website Zillow had said Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach was sold Aug. 4 for $422 million, although that information was later deleted. Donald Trump’s son Eric reportedly has denied any such sale.
Zillow removed the sale from the website at 12:15 pm Friday.
A Snapshot Of The Five Boroughs of NYC
By merging the results of the individual market reports I provide for Douglas Elliman: Manhattan, Brooklyn, and Queens and the NYC ACRIS data to crunch Staten Island and The Bronx, I came up with this report.
A Recap Of The Five Boroughs Of NYC In Charts Through Q2-2023
The Rapattoni MLS Is Nearly Back After Ransomware Attack
Back on August 9th, the Rapattoni MLS system was subjected to a ransomware attack and no new data could be entered. They have a strong presence in Ohio and California.
Rapattoni MLS is on its way back to our customers! We’re so thankful for our customers’ support during this time and we’re continuing the nonstop work to bring all our products back online.
— Rapattoni (@Rapattoni) August 22, 2023
What do agents and appraisers do when their primary data source is locked down? Markets freeze temporarily as new information is inaccessible. During this period, I heard that some brokers were telling buyers not to look yet, probably, partly because buyers’ agents could not see the dual agency agreements applicable to the listing.
What a mess – I am glad to hear the nightmare is just about over. It does make you think about sole dependency on one resource, though.
We Need To Build More Homes In NYC
I love this instagram feed – clear and concise…
News 12: NYC Rents Are High
I get a brief cameo. LOL.
Multi-family CRE – It’s About The Capital Stack, Not Vacancy
I love random insights from people I don’t know that make much sense.
Fascinating listen. There is essentially a massive margin call on real estate developers trying to rollover CRE debt.
Meaning you can’t rollover debt rn without supplying huge amounts collateral.
Many of these firms aren’t going to have the money to do this.
— QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) August 20, 2023
My favorite housing market charts of the week of our own making
My favorite housing market/economic charts of the week made by others
"When government debt levels are high, it is more difficult for interest rates to stay elevated for a long time because the negative impact on the economy of higher rates is also working through higher debt servicing costs for the government:" Apollo's Slok pic.twitter.com/hK19ZGM9Hi
— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) August 23, 2023
Apollo’s Torsten Slok‘s amazingly clear charts.
#NEW The Mortgage Bankers Association expects the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to average…
6.2% in Q4 2023
5.0% in Q4 2024
4.6% in Q4 2025 pic.twitter.com/vwxH5D3oOn
— Lance Lambert (@NewsLambert) August 21, 2023
91% of U.S. mortgage borrowers have a mortgage rate below 5.01% pic.twitter.com/DQDQqbUTys
— Lance Lambert (@NewsLambert) August 21, 2023
Zillow home price data for America's 30 largest metropolitan housing markets
1. MoM (month over month)
2. YTD (year to date)
3. YoY (year over year)
4. Down from peak
5. Change since March 2020
Seasonally adjusted, through July 2023 pic.twitter.com/nFAK68SvyQ
— Lance Lambert (@NewsLambert) August 19, 2023
Kastle card swipe data charts
Remember that Kastle charts are overstating occupancy* because their pre-pandemic occupancy benchmark was 100% which is simply incorrect (*measures card swipe activity as a proxy for occupancy).
Len Kiefer‘s chart handiwork
My favorite random charts of the week made by others
After the huge announcement of their new CEO by the Appraisal Institute last week, I hereby give all U.S. appraisers the week off. Ha.
OFT (One Final Thought)
Did I ever mention I was the yo-yo champion of my 5th-grade class? Maybe I didn’t advance further because I failed to embrace “Butterfly” style yo-yos. Here’s the Tom Brady of yo-yo competitors. Note the audience engagement.
Brilliant Idea #1
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Brilliant Idea #2
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See you next week!
Reads, Listens and Visuals I Enjoyed
- The Story Behind This Modernist House Has as Many Twists and Turns as Its Architecture [Wall Street Journal]
- Rising Insurance Costs Start to Hit Home Sales [Wall Street Journal]
- FOUND: Real Estate [foundny.com]
- Ominous Sign: Nearly Two-Thirds Of WeWork Locations In NYC Are In Older Buildings [Bisnow]
- US existing home sales slide again, but prices up from a year earlier [Reuters]
- New home sales rose to a 17-month high in July [CNN Business]
- NYC Lost 100K Homes in Apartment-to-House Conversions [The City]
- 1100 S Ocean Blvd, Palm Beach, FL 33480 [Zillow]
- Tenants to Get a Break From Rising U.S. Rents, Forecast Says [Mansion Global]
- If Your Rent Went to a Mortgage Instead, How Much Space Would It Buy? [NY Times]
- Extreme Condo Flipping in West Palm Beach! [Highest & Best]
- Rapattoni Reportedly Restores Service to NorCal MLS Network [The Real Deal]
- Ex-HFZ Exec Nir Meir’s Wife Reveals Explosive Text Messages [The Real Deal]
- Businesses Want Remote Work, Just Not as Much [Liberty Street Economics]
- The Making of Boerum Hill [New Yorker]
- Independent Budget Office sheds light on vacant rent-stabilized apartments [NY1]
- WSJ News Exclusive | Billionaires’ Row Penthouse Finds Buyer Following Latest Price Cut [Wall Street Journal]
- WSJ News Exclusive | First Asking $74.8 Million, a Malibu Spec Mansion Fetches $26.5 Million at Auction [Wall Street Journal]
- Mayor Adams Creates Unit to Speed Office-to-Housing Projects [The Real Deal]
- Airbnb Hosts and Guests Scramble as New York Begins Crackdown [Wall Street Journal]
- Office Tenants Are Renewing Leases—but for Far Less Space [Wall Street Journal]
- Goodbye Bathtub and Living Room. America’s Homes Are Shrinking. [Wall Street Journal]
- Existing-Home Sales Slipped 2.2% in July [NAR]
- Trump Org’s Controversial Deal at Turtle Bay Condos Approved [The Real Deal]
- Berenice Abbott Captured Manhattan in the Throes of Heady Change [NY Times]
- The Invention of a Neighborhood [New Yorker]
- Never Mind Shrinking Households, Builders Are Adding Bedrooms [Bloomberg]
- Noise Horror Stories From Our Readers [Curbed]
- A Bright Spot in Commercial Real Estate: Retail Shops [Wall Street Journal]
- New York Plans to Open Parts of Midtown Manhattan to Housing [NY Times]
- Is the Airbnb Dream Dead? [Bloomberg]
- Opinion | No One Pays ‘Owner-Equivalent Rent’ [Wall Street Journal]
- It’s the end of an era for mortgage rates [Yahoo Finance]
My New Content, Research and Mentions
- I Moved From Ohio to New York City. Was That Financially Crazy? [Wall Street Journal]
- A 'tiny' studio apartment in New York City without a kitchen sink is on the rental market for $2,500 per month: 'No-one said it was ideal' [Business Insider]
- In the LA mansion market, steep discounts are the new normal [Idaho Statesman]
- Want to rent in Manhattan? You'll have to spend nearly $70,000 a year. [MorningStar]
- This is the worst city in the US for being a single parent [NY Post]
- Real estate survey: Average monthly rent in Manhattan reaches $5,588 – a record high [Bronx News 12]
- The Case of the $13.5 Million Price Gap [Curbed]
- Related buys West Palm Beach site for luxury condos [Crain's New York]
- Billionaire Stephen Ross’s Related Buys West Palm Beach Site for Condos [Bloomberg]
- Billionaires Row villa sells for $80M in biggest sale of the year so far [Crain's New York]
Recently Published Elliman Market Reports
- Elliman Report: Manhattan, Brooklyn & Queens Rentals 7-2023 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: California New Signed Contracts 7-2023 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Florida New Signed Contracts 7-2023 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: New York New Signed Contracts 7-2023 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: San Diego County Sales 2Q 2023 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Orange County Sales 2Q 2023 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Malibu + Malibu Beach Sales 2Q 2023 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Los Angeles Sales 2Q 2023 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: North Fork Sales 2Q 2023 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Hamptons Sales 2Q 2023 [Miller Samuel]
Appraisal Related Reads
- Higher rates, insurance, & the stock market vs real estate [Sacramento Appraisal Blog]
- Alternative to supervisor-trainee approach opens the door to become an appraiser [Firsttuesday Journal]
- The Appraiser-Agent Relationship: A Win-Win Approach [Birmingham Appraisal Blog]
Extra Curricular Reads
- My fear and loathing [Navalny.com]
- The Armed Is One of Punk’s Biggest, Oddest Mysteries. That’s Changing. [NY Times]
- John Warnock, Inventor of the PDF, Dies at 82 [NY Times]
- NYC congestion pricing board tackles tough job of deciding who’ll be exempt [Bloomberg Autoblog]
- The New York Times blocks OpenAI’s web crawler [The Verge]
- Elon Musk’s Shadow Rule [New Yorker]
- The Beekeepers Who Don’t Want You to Buy More Bees [NY Times]
- Changing Its Name Tanked X’s Downloads in App Store and Play Store [Daring Fireball]