While Looking For Housing, I Dig A Pony

May 20, 2022

I always say, “lead with a ‘Dad’ joke”…(NSFW – wait for it)

…and end with a great song on a rooftop:

But I digress…

Manhattan Rental Prices Surge At A Record Price By A Record Rate

I’m a week late on sharing this but I was traveling last week in California and am currently in Florida but with more time on my hands. Douglas Elliman published out rental research for April that is a part of our expanding series I’ve been authoring since 1994.

Bloomberg created some telling rental price charts in their coverage of the April report:

Elliman Report: April 2022 Manhattan, Brooklyn & Queens Rentals

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MANHATTAN RENTAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

“Net effective median rent rose annually to a new high at the largest rate on record.”

– Net effective median rent surged by the highest annual rate on record to the highest level on record
– The most significant annual decline in listing inventory for the month of April on record
– The vacancy rate remained under two percent for the fifth consecutive month
– Doorman’s net effective median rent surged annually at a record rate for the eighth time in nine months
– Non-doorman rent rose by a record rate that was higher than for doorman rent over the past two months
– Luxury median rent and net effective median rent rose year over year to their second-highest levels
– Bidding wars accounted for more than one-third of all luxury rentals
– Luxury landlord market share of concessions fell to the lowest on record for the third straight month

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BROOKLYN RENTAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

“Net effective median rent increased year over year to the third-highest level on record.”

– Net effective median rent increased annually at a rising rate for the past six months
– Landlord concession market share fell to its second-lowest level in four and a half years
– New lease signings reached the second-highest level for the month of April on record

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QUEENS RENTAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

[Northwest Region] “Net effective median rent increased year over year at the second-largest rate to the highest level on record.”

– Net effective median rent rose to a record high at the second-fastest annual rate in history
– Listing inventory has collapsed annually for the fifth consecutive quarter
– Landlord concession market share fell to its second-lowest level in five and a half years

How Manhattan Looks From Above

It’s a sharp landing if you’re not careful.

PROVE ME WRONG: Disrupters Are Making Housing More Expensive

There was a super insightful article out of Curbed this week New York Now Has More Airbnb Listings Than Apartments for Rent

Bloomberg picked it up, then Crains, then Fortune.

Airbnb started in San Francisco and created the same problem there. Homeowners can make 2.5x the rental income per month they could over a traditional 1-2 year lease. The genie is out of the bottle as they say.

The idea here is that these short-term (usually illegal because they are less than 30 days) rentals are reducing the availability of traditional rentals, driving up rental prices to record levels.

This runs parallel to the institutional home buyers who are buying and building single families to rent out. Combine that phenomenon with mortgage rates being held too low for too long and supply collapses and price trends spike.

The Problem With Using YOY Percentages on Listing Inventory To Tell The Story To Mere Mortals

A great source on the state of housing market is Calculated Risk. I saw this recent chart tracking the year-over-year change in active inventory and I think it may be misinterpreted by most followers of the housing market.

To the casual observer (mere mortals like myself), it would appear that listing inventory has normalized or is surging to normal levels.

Yet we know that the low starting points yield high percentages like going from “1” to “2” is 100%.

Now for context, look at listing inventory in raw numbers from the same source, NAR. Yes listing inventory is climbing, but from an extremely low point and still woefully inadequate.

Getting Graphic

My favorite charts of the week made by us

My favorite charts of the week made by others

Len Kiefer‘s Chart Handiwork

Upcoming Speaking Events

This should be a great virtual discussion on the market:

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Yesterday, I had a great time moderating an in-person event of 150 real estate agents on the real estate evolution of the north end of West Palm Beach at the spectacular Lake Pavilion.

Elliman Report: Q1-2022 West Palm Beach Sales

Also, I was gifted a terrific Florida quote from someone at the event that I will use forever:

There are two seasons in Florida: Summer and Hell.

Appraiserville

(For earlier appraisal industry commentary, visit my old clunky REIC site.)

Voice of Appraisal E255 Life, Liberty and the Value of Property!!!

I’ve found it quite fascinating to observe the discourse on “appraisal bias” and how many appraisers are conflating “I am not a racist” with the optics of our profession to the public “400 out of 400 or dead last in diversity.” Phil takes a thoughtful deep dive on the topic and I’m thankful our profession has someone who is able to articulate it so clearly.

OFT (One Final Thought)

My primary thought as I fly home tomorrow…

Brilliant Idea #1

If you need something rock solid in your life (particularly on Friday afternoons) and someone forwarded this to you, or you think you already subscribed, sign up here for these weekly Housing Notes. And be sure to share with a friend or colleague if you enjoy them because:

– They’ll dig a pony;
– You’ll dig a pony;
– And I’ll dig a pony.

Brilliant Idea #2

You’re obviously full of insights and ideas as a reader of Housing Notes. I appreciate every email I receive and it helps me craft the next week’s Housing Note.

See you next week.

Jonathan J. Miller, CRP, CRE, Member of RAC
President/CEO
Miller Samuel Inc.
Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants
Matrix Blog
@jonathanmiller

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